Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
Point Forecast Updated Fri May 10, 2024 1:03am EDT
Some showers are possible this evening into early Friday as low pressure tracks to the south, otherwise drier and cooler for much of Friday as NE winds develop. Cooler than normal this weekend with rain chances increasing Saturday night and Sunday, then milder temperatures return early next week but an unsettled pattern persists.
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Lo 46 °F
A slight chance of rain showers after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
Hi 57 °F
A slight chance of rain showers between 7am and 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Northeast wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly Cloudy
Lo 42 °F
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph.
Partly Sunny
Hi 56 °F
Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph.
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Lo 43 °F
A slight chance of rain showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Chance Rain Showers
Hi 59 °F
A chance of rain showers before 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Partly Cloudy
Lo 45 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. South wind around 8 mph.
Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers
Hi 67 °F
A slight chance of rain showers after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph.
Chance Rain Showers
Lo 52 °F
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance Showers And T-Storms
Hi 75 °F
A chance of rain showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 12 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance Showers And T-Storms
Lo 56 °F
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 12 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance Rain Showers
Hi 66 °F
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Southeast wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance Rain Showers
Lo 53 °F
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northeast wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance Rain Showers
Hi 68 °F
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Northeast wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Updated Fri May 10, 2024 1:03am EDT
000 FXUS61 KBOX 100538 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 138 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Some showers are possible this evening into early Friday as low pressure tracks to the south, otherwise drier and cooler for much of Friday as NE winds develop. Cooler than normal this weekend with rain chances increasing Saturday night and Sunday, then milder temperatures return early next week but an unsettled pattern persists. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM update... Scattered light showers spreading east into western SNE as area of deep moisture moves into the region ahead of mid level low across eastern Gt Lakes. Focus for showers tonight will be across SW half of SNE from western MA into RI and south coast where best moisture is present. Moisture decreases to the north and east so any showers will be spotty across north central and especially NE MA. Previous discussion... Caught under cyclonic flow with a shortwave trough lifting from the OH Valley into southern New England late tonight. Low pressure slides into the Mid Atlantic. Could see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps brief periods of steady rain to the north/northeast of the low sliding south of our region. NBM probabilities appeared much too high, especially compared to latest obs. Leaned heavily on latest HREF guidance, but in particular the NSSL WRF. This is doing well compared to obs so far. Anticipate showers spreading in from west to east. Best shot for 0.10" or greater is across western MA/CT. Elsewhere totals should remain below 0.10". The area of highest precip also coincides with where PWATs approach 1 inch. Prolonged onshore flow will bring us cooler temps tonight. Lows will be in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... 745 PM Update... Highlights * Showers during the AM, especially for the MA-Pike south. Should gradually diminish as high pressure builds in. * Dry and quiet weather Friday night, though a few spotty showers/drizzle possible over portions of the immediate south coast. Still in cyclonic flow through this timeframe. A broad trough in place over the central/eastern Great Lakes early on Fri. This digs into the Mid Atlantic/Appalachians by late in the day. Behind the trough a shortwave ridge builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Low pressure remains south of our region on Fri and slides further offshore on Fri as high pressure nudges in from the north. Main change in the latest update was to deviate from the NBM and show decreasing chances of showers, especially across much of MA as high pressure builds in. Consensus of guidance showing a dry forecast especially with the upper/lower forcing more to our S/SE. Showers could linger across portions of the south coast late in the afternoon/Fri night, but wanted to show more of a downward trend. Not out of the question there is some spotty drizzle given the onshore flow into early Sat. On top of the shower chances have also deviated from the NBM on wind speeds/gusts. We've got a fairly decent 20-30 kt ENE/NE low level jet developing near Long Island and perhaps into Nantucket. Should not be terribly difficult to mix down per Bufkit soundings, so have bumped up our wind speeds/gusts. Think there could be some 20-25 mph gusts during Fri afternoon, especially across RI and SE MA. Temperatures looked fine in previous update, so have stuck with widespread 50s and perhaps some low 60s in the CT River Valley. Bit of a right turn on the forecast for Friday night. High pressure building in, so have gone with a dry forecast. There could be some spotty drizzle, but the NBM was way too high with PoPs for eastern MA heading into early Sat. Should have a fair amount of cloud cover until toward daybreak Sat. Lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights * Dry for much of Sat, but there could be some spotty showers across the interior late. * Hit or miss showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder on Sun. Could have some graupel/small hail with any stronger storms. * Dry for much of Mon with a return of seasonable temps. * Unsettled late Mon into midweek as a frontal boundary slides through. Though there is considerable uncertainty in how exactly things will evolve. Saturday... Stuck under cyclonic flow through this timeframe with a trough over the central Great Lakes early on Sat and a shortwave ridge over the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic. The shortwave ridge builds into southern New England by the afternoon, while the trough digs into the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic. The ridge axis slides offshore Sat eve. A weak high nudges into our region through much of this timeframe. A broad low slides into the eastern Great Lakes late in the day. Overall anticipating that the weather will be dry and quiet for much of the day albeit still unseasonably cool due to onshore flow. The onshore flow coupled with height falls later on Sat and diurnal heating could bring some spotty showers during the afternoon. Not super confident on this as forcing is quite weak and AOA measurable 24 hr QPF probs continue to diminish per EPS/GEFS and GEPS guidance from run to run. Should have fairly cool air in place with onshore flow. At this point 925 hPa temps range from roughly 1-8 degrees Celsius with the mildest temps across the Berkshires. The NBM temps actually seemed pretty dialed in at this point, so haven't made any changes. Highs range from the low 50s along the east coast to the low 60s across the CT River Valley. Sunday... The trough over the eastern Great Lakes late on Sat will lift into and perhaps through portions of New England during this period. There is potential that we get a cutoff beginning to set up over the region. A broad low will be in place nearby or over southern New England during this timeframe. Think this is our next opportunity for hit/miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. We really do not have a whole lot of moisture to work with as EPS/NAEFS situational awareness tables indicating that PWATs are around -0.5 to -1 STD below model climo. This translates to PWATs roughly around 0.5". Though we do have anomalously low 500 hPa height overhead (-2 STD per both SATA tables). The 500 hPa trough/cutoff overhead is also quite cold with temps of -20 to -25 degrees Celsius. This in combination with diurnal heating should result in hit/miss shower and thunderstorm activity. Given the cold core in place do think there could be some graupel/small hail if any more vigorous showers/storms can develop. Should note that mid level lapse rates are around 5-7 degrees Celsius with low level lapse rates around 5-8 degrees Celsius. Though these lapse rates really depend on the deterministic model being viewed, so there is considerable uncertainty given the weak forcing. Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer is quite low at this point, so not anticipating any strong/severe storms. Though given the environment think there could be some small hail pending how much instability is in place. The longer term convective allowing guidance, ie the NCAR MPAS and C- SHiELD do show max vertically integrated graupel spottiness over the Northeast of 0.1 to roughly 0.5 inches. Though again appears very hit/miss in nature. Could have a bit of MUCAPE in place, but guidance all over the place. Most robust is with the NCAR MPAS with a few hundred J/kg over western MA/CT. Stay tuned for future updates. Monday through Wednesday... Still caught under cyclonic flow through this timeframe with a cutoff in place over Quebec/Ontario/Hudson Bay. A ridge axis flattens out as it is building into the Mid Atlantic on Mon. A shortwave begins lifting in on Tue and behind it a deeper trough may slide in for Wed. A weak high nudges in for a good portion of Monday before a frontal boundary slides in late in the day. The front may still be sliding in on Tue or overhead and into Wed. Dry and quiet weather anticipated for much of Mon with high pressure nudging into our region from offshore of the Mid Atlantic. Late in the day some guidance begins sliding a front in, but lots of discrepancy here. So, have just stuck with the NBM at this point in time. We should rebound temp wise quite nicely to more seasonable values, ie readings in the 60s to low 70s. The front will still be overhead and perhaps working its way through on Tue/Wed. Though there is a lot of uncertainty in how things evolve as a deeper low could ride along the front bringing us heavier rains or kicking the front offshore. Ensemble guidance is also spread with the EPS a bit more amped up (like the ECWMF) with moderate/high probs (30-80 percent) of 24 hr QPF AOA 0.5 inches into Wed. The GEPS/GEFS show low probs (10-30 percent) of the same QPF binning. The EPS even showing some low probs of 24 hr QPF AOA 1 inch. Something to keep an eye on as we get closer, but for now think that the NBM suffices. Temperatures trending near to above normal through this period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z... Mix of VFR-MVFR cigs with occasional showers mostly south of BAF-TAN-PYM. Today...High confidence. MVFR-VFR cigs trending to VFR from NE to SW. A few showers south of the MA Pike into early afternoon. NE wind 10-20 kt with higher gusts over the Islands. Tonight...High confidence. VFR, except for ACK where MVFR cigs possible with low chance of a few showers. NE wind 5-15 kt becoming N overnight. Saturday...High confidence. VFR, but areas of MVFR cigs developing across portions of eastern MA and Cape/Islands where a spot shower possible. NE wind 10-20 kt. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs this morning with scattered showers will improve this afternoon. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday night... Northeast winds below 20 kt may increase with gusts 20-25 kt tonight into Fri, especially over south coastal waters as low pres tracks to the south. Seas build to 5 ft over the southern and eastern outer waters Friday AM into Friday night. Due to this have hoisted a SCA in the latest update. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides coupled with onshore flow may result in some splashover/very minor coastal flooding during the overnight high tide cycle tonight. However, wind/waves do not appear high enough to result in a significant issue. The daytime high tides are lower and do not pose a threat for coastal flooding. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW/BL NEAR TERM...KJC/BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...BL AVIATION...KJC/BL MARINE...BW/BL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Point forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93/forecast
Zone forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/zones/forecast/MAZ014/forecast
Hourly forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93/forecast/hourly
Hourly detail:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93
Point detail:
https://api.weather.gov/points/42.4399,-71.2405
Alerts:
https://api.weather.gov/alerts?active=1&point=42.4399,-71.2405