Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 427 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Valid 00Z Thu Aug 27 2026 - 00Z Sat Aug 29 2026 ...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S. into the Southwest this week... ...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday... ...Flash flooding threat across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Thursday... The overall weather pattern continues to show ridging holding on across the Southwest U.S and maintaining the extreme heat for Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, troughing across the Pacific Northwest will push a cold front across the region late week into the weekend. This will drop temperatures slightly below average into the 70s and 80s and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms across the upper Inter-Mountain West through Friday. Across the East, a cold front will clear the Ohio Valley today and bring the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the I-95 corridor tomorrow. Cooler air will filter behind the front and bring high temperatures down to the low 80s and upper 70s and morning low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. As mentioned above, strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest through Friday, bringing daytime highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115 degrees in the Southwest. Record-breaking overnight temperatures will limit recovery from the heat, which may result in heat-related illnesses for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk will continue across portions of southern Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information. A progressive upper-level trough will move eastward across the Midwest into the Great Lakes toward the Northeast. Organized convection will develop along and ahead of a frontal boundary tomorrow from Washington D.C. northwards to the Hudson Valley. The strongest storms will have the potential to produce isolated instances of hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Moreover, excessive rainfall/flash flooding is becoming increasingly likely from Baltimore to New York City metros with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall and local flood watches in effect. Across the central Gulf Coast on Thursday, proximity to a stalled frontal boundary and shortwave energy ejecting southwards towards the Gulf will provide forcing for abundant thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall from central Louisiana towards the Florida Panhandle. A Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in effect for the possibility of scattered instances of flash flooding for mostly localized urban areas such as New Orleans and Mobile. The threat for locally heavy rainfall will shift towards the eastern Carolinas on Friday with a front and lee troughing across the Piedmont promoting thunderstorm development. There remains some uncertainty on the flash flooding extent with the higher flash flood guidance across the coastal plain. Some gusty winds are possible as well according to the Storm Prediction Center for the possibility of wet microbursts, typical of summer thunderstorms. Meanwhile, continued monsoonal moisture transport around the western periphery of the ridge will support daily thunderstorms across the portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Rockies. For the Southwest monsoon, the combination of high moisture and instability may lead to organized slow-moving storms, which will continue to favor isolated flash flooding across much of the Four Corners Thursday and Friday. For the northern and central Plains, a complex of thunderstorms or two may form Thursday and Friday, bringing isolated instances of large hail and accompanied locally heavy rainfall. Oudit/Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php