Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

39°F

2/25/2026 4:43pm

Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 38.8°F / 3.8°C
Dew Point: 32.2°F
Feels Like: 38.7°F
Relative Humidity: 77%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 3 mph
Barometer: 29.57 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.5 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 251952
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
252 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The probability for a brief round of rain/snow showers has
been increased after 8-9 pm until 2-3 am. Guidance trending a 
possible storm for the start of next week away from the region,
but unsettled weather still cannot be entirely ruled out as 
significant spread across the guidance remains.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief round of scattered rain/snow showers after 8-9 pm until
  about 2-3 am with even a few snow squalls possible across the
  interior. The next system passes well to our south late
  Thu/Thu night with no impacts.

- Cold front passing through Sunday that may bring some snow showers.
  Colder temperatures with a potential Arctic outbreak for the 
  start of the week.

- Unsettled weather still a possibility for the start of next
  week, but confidence remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1...Brief round of scattered rain/snow showers 
after 8-9 pm until about 2-3 am with even a few snow squalls 
possible across the interior. The next system passes well to our
south late Thu/Thu night with no impacts.

A shortwave/cold front will cross the region tonight. Vigorous
shortwave energy coupled with some moisture/instability in the 0-2 
KM layer will result in scattered snow showers and perhaps a few 
brief snow squalls too across the interior. This activity will enter 
western MA after 8-9 pm and it is not out of the question a few 
spots receive a quick one half to 1" of new snow with the greatest 
risk in the high terrain. Some of this activity may survive onto the 
I-95 corridor in the 11 pm to 2 am time window. Warmer boundary 
layer may result in Ptype mixed with or even in the form of rain 
showers. Regardless...not really expecting any additional roadway 
impacts near the coast given above freezing temps when the activity 
moves across the region.

Otherwise...these scattered rain/snow showers departs after 2-3 am 
with lows in the 20s to near 30 by daybreak. Plenty of sunshine Thu 
with highs in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Low pressure will pass 
well to our south late Thu/Thu night with mainly just some mid level 
clouds and we are favoring it remaining dry. The GFS remains a 
northern outlier...but a worst case scenario would be a coating to 
1" on the immediate south coast/Cape and Islands and that is just a 
low probability at this point. 

Key Message 2...Cold front passing through Sunday that may 
bring some snow showers. Colder temperatures with a potential 
Arctic outbreak for the start of the week.

Guidance is indicating a possible Arctic outbreak over southern New 
England to start the week after a more seasonable first half of the 
weekend. A cold front pushes through Sunday, and the chance for some 
light snow showers moves in with it. Some low to mid-level moisture 
along with CAA and the lift from the front will be helpful for these 
showers developing. Behind the front, strong CAA continues as Arctic 
air settles over the region. 925 mb temperatures fall from around 0C 
to -15C and even down to -20C by Monday morning. Highs Monday will 
likely not climb higher than the 20s and lows Sunday and Monday 
night will likely fall back into the low teens and single digits.

Key Message 3...Unsettled weather still a possibility for the 
start of next week, but confidence remains low.

Considerable spread regarding the chance for another storm system 
Monday into Tuesday still exists across the different ensembles and 
deterministic models. With regards to precip, confidence is very low 
as the track for this system is still very uncertain. Some ensemble 
suites have the high pressure moving in over Quebec shifting more 
south over New York state into northern New England by Monday 
morning. If this occurred, precipitation would be suppressed. Latest 
guidance has not much of a signal for a wave impacting the region 
for Monday as a result. GEFS still has a signal for a system Monday, 
but even it has trended south. Will be something to continue 
monitoring, especially this far out. Unsettled weather may still 
make a return past Monday, but again, there is significant spread 
across all guidance suites at this time, so confidence is quite low 
in this part of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon through Thursday night...High confidence in
trends with moderate confidence in timing.

MVFR ceilings may linger into the late afternoon hours...But 
most locations improve to VFR conditions this evening outside 
of any brief precipitation in the 02z to 08z window with a cold
frontal passage. A line of snow showers with a few heavier snow 
squalls possible will drop into northwest MA after 01z-02z. This 
activity may reach the I-95 corridor in the 04z to 07z window 
perhaps mixed with or in the form of rain showers. This activity may 
result in briefly lower cigs/vsbys. Otherwise...VFR conditions 
behind this activity right through Thu night. Southwest wind gusts 
of 15 to 25 knots diminish early this evening but expect a period of 
LLWS ahead of an approaching cold front. Otherwise...west winds 7 to 
13 knots on Thu. Winds then become light NW Thu night and should 
decouple in the typical spots. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate 
confidence in timing.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate 
confidence in timing.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. 

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence.

SW wind gusts of 20-30 knots across the waters diminish early this 
evening. Otherwise...we may have a surge of westerly wind gusts of 
25 knots across our northern waters overnight into Thu morning. 
Nonetheless...lingering swell across our southern waters will
only slowly diminish so small craft headlines will need to
continue well into Thu. 

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow. 

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
freezing spray. 

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for 
     ANZ231>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/Hrencecin
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin