Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

51°F

10/12/2026 1:08am

Lexington Conditions: Light rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 51.4°F / 10.8°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 95%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.83 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 3 miles
Rain Today: 0.11 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 051201
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
801 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy but dry today with pleasant temperatures ahead of a
  cold front.

- Drying trend and fall-like conditions return for the rest of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy but dry today with pleasant temperatures
ahead of a cold front.

A deepening low continues to track east across the James Bay 
and into Quebec today. Despite the cold front pushing through 
New England later this afternoon, clearing skies and full sun 
will help raise temperatures are expected into the upper 60s 
today. This front will also bring breezy conditions, with wind 
gusts on the order of 20 to 30 mph, especially over the waters 
and higher elevation regions, through tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying trend and fall-like conditions return 
for the rest of the week.

The drying trend continues through the rest of the week as a 
strong high pressures system builds in Tuesday over the Great 
Lakes. This high brings a significantly cooler airmass into New 
England, with the latest guidance indicating the 540mb line 
sinking well into northern New England, likely as far south as 
southern NH, by late tonight or early Tuesday morning. 850mb 
temperatures drop to near 0C, likely below 0C in the higher 
elevations. Most guidance also suggests 925mb temps drop to as 
low as +1C or +2C. This would support surface highs near 60 
degrees with nighttime lows possibly falling into the 30s 
through Wednesday. Tuesday night looks to be the coldest of the 
season due to radiational cooling from clear skies and low 
winds.

A brief warm-up to the low 70s may be possible late week as the
high pushes east Thursday. Otherwise, prolonged west-southwest 
flow will mark the return of drier conditions and seasonable 
temperatures to southern New England for the end of the week. 
Seeing some potential in the global models for some showers 
toward the end of the weekend, but given the timeframe, it'll 
remain something to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Monday and Monday Night...High confidence.

Lingering IFR/MVFR ceilings and patchy FG through this morning 
improving to VFR 13-16Z. Gusty W to WNW winds 20-30 kts developing
by early afternoon with the highest gusts occurring in the 
18-23Z for most terminals and 21-04Z for Cape terminals. Gusts 
decrease this evening, diminishing for the interior terminals. 
Low end gusts continue at terminals like BOS. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence 
in timing. MVFR ceilings this morning becoming SCT 13-14Z. Lower
SCT decks possible through the remainder of the morning.
Enhanced WNW winds/gusts develop around 16Z at 20-30 kts. The
higher end of these gusts are more likely to occur between
18-22Z as a boundary pushes through. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: VFR. 

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. 

Thursday Night: VFR. 

Friday: VFR. Breezy. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

Some lingering showers off Cape Cod push further offshore 
through sunrise. Gusty west winds then develop with the frontal 
passage this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect 
for wind gusts up to 25-28 kt. In addition, seas should build to
5-7 feet across the outer coastal waters. Seas and winds begin 
to diminish late Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this 
     evening for ANZ230-236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT 
     Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT 
     Tuesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn/Mensch
MARINE...McMinn