Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

37°F

1/11/2026 11:29am

Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 37.2°F / 2.9°C
Dew Point: 36.1°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.65 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.07 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 111116
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
616 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory has ended early as temperatures have risen 
above freezing, ending the freezing rain threat. A potent shortwave 
passage this afternoon could lead to a snow squall or two, then west 
winds become breezy to strong overnight. A Wind Advisory has been 
issued for the Berkshires for gusts up to 50 mph.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing rain threat ends with rain showers this morning.
  Additional rain this afternoon for the Islands and far
  southeast Massachusetts.

- Snow squall possible late afternoon, followed by strong wind
  gust early this evening into early Monday morning across the
  Berkshires. 

- Mainly dry conditions early next week, trending more unsettled
  by mid-week with periodic showers. Monitoring a potential
  coastal system late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Freezing rain threat ends with rain showers this 
morning. Additional rain this afternoon for the Islands and far 
southeast Massachusetts. 

Widespread precipitation trending more scattered with the arrival of 
the dry slot. Temperatures across all of southern New England are 
hovering above freezing, mid to upper-30s, freezing rain threat has 
passed. Rest of the rain through early morning is concentrated to 
the south coast of RI and MA, Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and 
Nantucket. There is a brief lull mid-morning, a resurgence of rain 
develops off the coast due to a strong baroclinic zone. Off shore a 
moisture plum from the Gulf coast follows the Gulf Stream, pumping 
in high PWATs. Light rain is anticipated through this afternoon with 
low clouds across most of southeastern New England, steadier rain is 
most likely for Nantucket through the afternoon. High-res guidance 
captures this well, derived POPs from a blend of the CAMs. Our winds 
begin to ramp up this afternoon ahead of a shortwave trough. More on 
this and the potential for CAA snow showers or a snow squall in the 
next section. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow squall possible late afternoon, followed by 
strong wind gust early this evening into early Monday morning across 
the Berkshires. 

Shortwave trough pushes through the northeast late this afternoon, 
and brings a treat of a snow squall or two. Don't believe this will 
reach the level experienced on New Year's Day, but never the less, 
after a period of moderate rainfall, treatment probably washed off 
the roads, and any quick hitting snow could lead to poor visibility 
and a fast accumulation of snow. The shortwave will not have a lot 
of moisture to work with, PWATs less than 0.25". However, there is 
good 850mb temperature falls, increasing lapse rates, leading to a 
little instability. Viewing the CAMs to get a sense for the timing 
it would appear this line arrives to western MA/CT around 5 PM and 
crosses southern New England, reaching the I-95 corridor by 9 PM. Do 
think this line of snow showers will lose some steam as it traverses 
from west to east. Nevertheless, if you are traveling this afternoon 
or early evening, be aware of this potential threat. Snowfall is 
minimal, not widespread, where his squall occurs a quick coating to 
as much as an inch is probable, in 20-40 minutes window. 

It will get windy behind this line of snow showers as well. As we 
have been advertising, modest CAA will allow for a period of strong 
wind gusts overnight into Monday morning. Highest confidence for 
gusts to reach up to 50 mph are in the Berkshires, this is where a 
Wind Advisory has been issued, 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM Monday. Reasoning 
is a modest low-level jet, winds range of 45 to 55 knots. Don't 
think will be able to tap into all this wind, mixing is intermittent 
while the strongest gusts across the Berkshires near 50 mph, 
elsewhere gusts of 30 to 40 are likely. Will need to review the 12z 
set of guidance for northern Worcester County, as of now gusts are 
marginal, decided to hold off on the advisory here. But a few gusts 
of 40 to 45 mph are possible. Timing this out, winds are noticeably 
stronger 8 PM to midnight, with the strongest gusts between midnight 
and 6 AM. Will still have breezy conditions through the morning 
hours of Monday, but not to the same extent, something like 20 to 30 
mph. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry conditions early next week, trending
more unsettled by mid-week with periodic showers. Monitoring a 
potential coastal system late next week. 

Early Week: 

Conditions are expected to remain primarily dry through the early 
part of next week. After seasonable temperatures Monday, 
temperatures trend warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in 
the 40s by mid-week. A weak shortwave moving through the flow 
Tuesday night into Wednesday may trigger scattered light rain or 
snow showers.

Late Week: 

There is general agreement among ensemble guidance for the upper-
level pattern to shift toward a more amplified trough pattern across 
the east by late week. This transition brings a return to colder 
temperatures near to slightly below normal. We continue to monitor 
the potential for development of a coastal low near/offshore 
sometime Thursday into Friday. While a favorable track could bring 
widespread precipitation to southern New England, significant 
uncertainty remains. Model guidance has been showing plenty of 
spread in solutions and lacking run to run consistency especially 
with regard to the track, timing, strength of the surface low. Low 
tracks range from direct track across southeast MA to a complete 
miss offshore east or southeast of southern New England. The 
evolution of the mid-level trough and potential closing of the 500mb 
low remain unclear as well. Given these variables, the potential for 
a coastal low to impact the region is low confidence. Will continue 
to monitor trends as the details come into better agreement among 
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

TAF Update: 12z

Today... High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing.

IFR/LIFR, with showers lingering into this morning, especially
for Cape & Islands. Winds turn WNW this morning, CIGS will be 
slow to improve to VFR until this afternoon. Rain showers and 
low CIGS will linger for the Cape and the Islands before
improving to VFR 21-00Z. A snow shower or a brief snow squall is
possible late this afternoon, mainly 22z-02z, have low/moderate
confidence (40%) in this occurring. Better chance will be
further west. Have opt'd to include PROB30 in TAF for the
terminals.

Tonight... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. 

VFR. Gusty W to WNW wind, 15-20 knots, gusts 30 to 40 knots. 

KBOS Terminal... Moderate Confidence. 

IFR/LIFR through mid-morning with lingering showers and drizzle. 
Ceilings improve slowly this AM into early afternoon. Moderate
on exact timing to VFR, most likely between 18-20Z. A snow 
shower or a brief snow squall is possible early this evening 
mainly 22z-02z. Confidence is lower in if the squall, showers stay
together as they move across western, central MA. Opted for a
PROB30 as a result. Brief MVFR possible in any showers. Gusty
WNW winds arrive after 00Z with gusts 25-35 kts. 

KBDL Terminal... Moderate Confidence.

CIGS improve to VFR by the afternoon. A snow shower or a brief 
snow squall late this afternoon, mainly 22z-02z, have moderate 
confidence (40%) in this occurring. Have opt'd to include PROB30
in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Chance
SHSN.

Monday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. 

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Tuesday: VFR. 

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA.

Thursday: VFR. Chance RA, chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday Night... High confidence. 

Rain showers today as a front pushes off shore and stalls southeast 
of Nantucket. This front will be a source of continued rain for 
today. E wind becomes W mid-morning, with speeds increasing 
afternoon, gusting 25 to 30 knots. Early evening westerly gale force 
winds are expected along with seas on the outer waters building to 8 
to 11 feet. Near shore waters are 4 to 7 feet. These rough 
conditions continue through the night and first half of Monday.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Areas of rough seas. 

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. 

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for 
     MAZ002-008-009.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for 
     ANZ230>237-251.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for 
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch