Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

63°F

6/25/2026 3:13am

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 63.1°F / 17.3°C
Dew Point: 56.5°F
Relative Humidity: 79%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.93 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 250534
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
134 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast at this time. The 
aviation section was updated for the 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable through the afternoon and much of the day 
  Thursday.

- Watching the risk for another round of showers and storms 
  Friday afternoon, some of which may be severe. 

- A few showers Saturday followed by a warming and drying trend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable through the afternoon and 
much of the day Thursday.

High pressure should continue to build into the region as 
afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s with upper 
70s along the coastline. 18Z satellite imagery shows a nice 
field of cumulus popping up across the region. This drier 
pattern will continue into tomorrow as high pressure stalls 
across much of the northeastern CONUS. Light west-northwesterly 
winds will persist through the evening, before turning more 
southwesterly overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Watching the risk for another round of showers 
and storms Friday afternoon, some of which may be severe. 

Chance for widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms 
arrives Thursday as a warm front pushes through the region. 
Model soundings show elevated instability with MLCAPE values 
generally <500 J/kg, so not expecting severe weather. Best 
chance for any embedded thunder will be across western MA. 
Showers likely continue through Friday morning with lingering 
low level clouds preventing much in the way of destabilization 
early in the day. Confidence decreases Friday afternoon with 
guidance divided into two camps with respect to the convective 
threat. The GFS and NAM show a scenario with quicker clearing 
with surface CAPE building >1000 J/kg beneath >40kts of 
effective shear. Should have ample forcing with a cold front 
approaching from the W later Friday afternoon. Other guidance, 
shows significantly less destabilization and a lower chance for 
widespread convection. The NBM shows a solid signal (35-50%) 
chance for CAPE values >1000J by 18Z Friday for northern and 
central MA and CT. Notably, this is a significant increase from 
the 07z run, likely hinting at an overall shift in model 
consensus towards higher instability Friday afternoon. 


KEY MESSAGE 3...A few showers Saturday followed by a warming 
and drying trend into next week. 

Guidance shows another wave of low pressure approaching the 
region Saturday. The consensus is to have this feature track 
well to the S of the region, though the chance remains that some
showers could impact the south coast heading into the daylight 
hours. Aside from this, dry weather is expected to return 
heading into the start of next week as high pressure associated 
with an amplified upper level ridge moves into southern New 
England. A warming trend also kicks off for the start of the 
work week, continuing into midweek. However, details on just how
warm it may get are still uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High -
greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update...

Through this afternoon...High confidence. 

VFR with southwesterly winds 10 kts, or less. There is a 
potential for a localized sea breeze to develop across portions 
of the immediate coast this afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms after 00z tonight increase
from W to E. The greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms
remains in western MA between 06z-12z. Included a PROB30 for BDL
to account for this risk. VFR ceilings steadily drop to MVFR and
even IFR heading into Friday morning. Fog along the south coast
and into SE MA is also likely overnight.

Friday...Moderate confidence.

Showers expected in the morning hours, then the risk for
isolated thunderstorms picks back up in the afternoon. However,
coverage of possible storms for the afternoon period is still 
uncertain. Generally lower-end VFR through much of the day
expected with areas of MVFR not out of the question.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance 
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High -
greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday...High confidence.

Expect winds to remain generally light through Thursday 
afternoon, before becoming a little breezy (gusts possible up to
20 kt) Thursday afternoon. Seas should remain 2 to 4 ft with 
the possibility of some 5 footers reaching the southern outer 
waters, but not expected to be widespread, or prolonged. There 
is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into 
Friday.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain 
showers. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FT/Dennis
AVIATION...Frank/Hrencecin/RM/Dennis
MARINE...Dennis