Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

54°F

11/10/2025 2:31am

Lexington Conditions: Fog, Overcast
Temperature: 54.0°F / 12.2°C
Dew Point: 52.9°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.62 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: ¼ mile
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Special Weather Statement
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 091130
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
630 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy today, with light rains breaking out this
afternoon as a warm front lifts through Southern New England.
Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 50s overnight with fog
and drizzle. A strong cold front moves through the area on
Monday, with mild temperatures to start but then sharply falling
through Monday afternoon. Breezy with below normal temperatures
on Tuesday. Slight improvements in temperatures Wednesday 
before a reinforcing trough arrives later next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Mostly cloudy but dry through about noontime. 

* Warm front spreads light rain northward during the afternoon, with 
  steadier rains and a rumble or two of thunder possible late this 
  afternoon in southeast New England. 

* Overcast, generally dreary tonight with mist/drizzle, and 
  slowly rising temps overnight. 

* Daytime max temps in the lower to mid 50s, but warming temps
  in mid to upper 50s overnight as warm airmass spreads in.

Details:

Aside from the immediate South Coast where skies were mostly clear, 
most of Southern New England otherwise has been blanketed by mid-
level cloudiness from a mid-level warm front working its way 
northeast from central NY/southern Adirondacks vicinity. Radar's 
picking up on spotty rain showers in eastern NY to the Berkshires, 
but this is really not much impact if the ground is even wettened at 
all. Current temps were still pretty mild given the midlevel cloud 
deck with temps in the 40s. At least thru sunrise, may have to watch 
for patchy fog to develop near the south coast thru sunrise, where 
better radiational cooling is taking place and modest southeast flow 
allowing for a creep-up in dewpoints. 

Large-scale picture is...in a word, complicated. Initial sfc 
low is analyzed roughly near northern IN, which is expected to 
pass well to our northwest. While it's not really evident yet in
sfc obs, we are expecting a weaker secondary low to take shape 
near the VA Piedmont region this morning; and it's this 
secondary low/related warm-frontal feature that we expect to 
move NE through the mid- Atlantic and affect Southern New 
England through today. 

For today: the ongoing midlevel cloudiness should lift 
northward into the mid-morning hours, allowing for a brief 
period of sun/limited diurnal warming. But it won't be for very 
long, as cloud cover starts to fill in again from SW to NE in 
all areas late this morning as the warm front near the mid-
Atlantic states begins to approach our southern coast. Pretty 
strong warm/moist advection accompanies this warm front, which 
will spread light rains between about noon to 6 PM from south to
north. Modest burst of elevated instability which brushes 
eastern RI and SE New England (e.g. most-unstable CAPEs around 
100-300 J/kg) late this afternoon into early tonight, as 
dewpoints rise into the low to mid 50s. Shown PoPs increasing 
into the lower Likely range (55-60%) for light rain in all areas
by early this afternoon, but are in the Categorical range 
(70-85%) for eastern and southeast New England where a low (15% 
or less) risk for thunder exists accompanying that instability 
burst. Northern CT into western MA/Berkshires have lesser PoPs 
(55-60%) as they could get stuck between the primary cyclone 
passing to the west and the warm frontal feature/secondary low 
moving offshore. Rain amts could be as much as a half-inch in 
southeast New England, but taper off to a quarter inch or less 
inland. Daytime high temps today may not rise much further than 
the mid 50s...but in some or even most areas, today's high 
occurs by midnight as warm/moist advection ensues. 

Moving into tonight: warm front lifts northward into northern 
New England early tonight. We get into a moist southerly flow in
its wake, as 850 mb temps warm to around +5 to +10C. Model 
soundings show a roughly 50 to 100 mb-thick layer of high RH 
beneath a dryslot above 900 mb for the evening and overnight in 
the moist warm-sector. Not expecting any showers tonight, but 
this is a typical setup for quite a bit of stratus and drizzle, 
with misty conditions as well. Temperatures and dewpoints stand 
to rise in a non-diurnal fashion as well, thus early lows with 
temps rising into the middle to even upper 50s. We'll have to 
watch the timing of an approaching potent cold front into the 
Berkshires, although seems more likely to move in on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
330 AM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Overcast but a mild start to Monday morning with temps in the
  mid/upper 50s. 

* Strong cold front moves through approximately 8-10 AM western 
  MA/CT, around noon for central MA, and around 1-3 PM for eastern 
  MA/RI. Brings a period of light to moderate passing rain showers.

* Sharply falling afternoon temps through the 40s behind the front. 

Details: 

Monday: 

Amplified 500 mb pattern develops over eastern CONUS on Mon, as
an anomalously strong upper trough digs into the Ohio and 
Tennessee Valleys and the mid-South. Once a cold front traverses
our area on Monday, it will usher in some of the coldest air of
the fall into Southern New England in the hours after its 
passage. 

The day starts off overcast and anomalously mild; in fact, many 
locations in Southern New England end up being some 10+ degrees 
warmer than the forecast highs in locations in several major 
cities in the mid-South. A strong cold front will be working its
way through Southern New England Mon, the timing is low-
confidence. Some models such as the GFS have the front clearing 
into the waters as early as late morning, while others have a 
frontal passage offshore by late in the day. Best estimate on 
the cold front's clearing is around 8-10 AM in the 
Berkshires/CT Valley, close to noontime in central MA/eastern 
CT, and early-mid afternoon for eastern MA and RI. Frontal 
passage will be marked by limited clearing with a period of 
light to moderate rains, but with crashing temps behind it. 
Temps in interior New England fall through the 40s by Mon aftn 
with some late- day readings around freezing in the Berkshires, 
and temps will just be starting to fall into eastern MA. Think 
there's just enough drier air post-frontal that we won't have to
contend with rain mixed with snowflakes in the Berkshires, but 
it's pretty close.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages: 

* Rain quickly comes to an end early Monday night

* Blustery with winter-like cold on Tuesday. Wind gusts to 30-40 mph

* Mostly dry and blustery at times Wed through Sat with below normal 
  temps. 

Deep upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the CWA Monday 
night into Tuesday. Fast-moving surface low races northeast Mon 
night. Mid-level dry slot quickly puts an end to any lingering 
precipitation early Monday night. Leftover showers in the high 
terrain end as a brief period of snow showers as the column rapidly 
cools from top down, but elsewhere dry air should win out before it 
gets cold enough for any snow. Much drier air moves in from the west 
with dewpoints falling into the 20s by early Tuesday morning. Lows 
Mon night will drop into the mid-upper 20s interior and lower 30s 
coastal plain. A few elevated locations in the far interior may even 
fall into the upper teens. 

Cold and windy day on tap Tuesday with a lingering pressure gradient 
and strong cold air advection behind departing low pressure. 850 mb 
temps drop to near -10C which will result in highs ranging from mid-
upper 30s higher terrain to low 40s coastal plain. Soundings show a 
deep and well mixed boundary layer with 925 mb winds increasing to 
35-40kts Tue supporting westerly wind gusts to 30-40 mph in the 
afternoon making it feel more like the 20s and 30s even in the 
afternoon. It looks mainly dry as the column is quite dry with PWATs 
less than 0.2" but can't rule out a few flurries or snow showers in 
the higher terrain as cold pool aloft with -35C 500 mb temps move 
into the region. And a few ocean effect showers are possible over 
the Islands. Otherwise sunshine will mix with developing diurnal cu. 

Core of the upper level trough moves out Tue night but broad trough 
sets up across much of the Northeast through the end of the week as 
a series of fast moving shortwaves reinforce the trough. The trough 
then amplifies east of New Eng on Saturday. Moisture is quite 
limited so expecting dry conditions most of the time with sunshine 
and diurnal cu, but can't rule out a few brief showers at times Wed 
through Fri, with low confidence on timing. Temps recover Wed-Thu 
but remain below normal then another shot of colder air moves back 
in for Fri-Sat. It will also be blustery at times from multiple 
shortwave passages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z TAF Update: 

Today: Moderate confidence. 

Mainly VFR initially, though conditions are starting to
deteriorate. Possible period of MVFR stratus 13-16z. However more
widespread MVFR with approaching warm frontal rains with mainly
5-6 SM visbys, timing roughly 16z to 20z from south to north.
Winds become SE around 8-12 kt with gusts to low 20s kt range
near the coast, but trend light NEly inland.

Tonight and Monday: High confidence in trends but moderate on 
timing.

Categories stay at MVFR ranges until warm front lifts north from
22-02z from south to north. That's when categories drop more
substantially, to widesprad IFR-LIFR levels in mist, drizzle 
and fog. Am very pessimistic on any improvement until the cold
frontal passage moves through Monday 15-22z. Winds tonight ease
and become SE/S through Monday. Windshift to W around 10-12 kt 
with frontal passge. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... 

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Veterans Day through Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt. 

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. 

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. 

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages: 

* SE winds pick up this afternoon to SCA levels. Showers on all
  waters this afternoon, with low risk for thunder over the
  south. Mist/fog could reduce visby on the waters tonight.

* Sharp cold front late in the day Monday. 

* Gale-force westerly gusts looking likely for Tue, perhaps 
  into early Wed.

Light SE winds this morning will be increasing to around 20-25
kt on most waters by this afternoon and into early tonight. SCAs
have been raised on the waters starting around 17z today and 
continue into 12z Mon. Seas will again rebuild to 4-6 ft 
offshore. Areas of showers this afternoon lift north early
tonight, but possible mist/fog and drizzle could reduce visbys 
on waters tonight.

Light SE to S winds early on Mon until frontal passage. 
Windshift to W Mon late aftn with gusts increasing into the SCA
to near-gale levels Mon night. 

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... 

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Veterans Day: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. 

Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up
to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of rain. 

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are still running high coming out of the full
moon from late in the week, but should continue to fall during
the Sunday and Monday. Continuing to monitor the high tides 
Sunday and Monday mornings at Nantucket for possible minor 
coastal flooding, with Stevens Institute supporting about a 1 ft
storm surge. However, Stevens Institute guidance keeps means 
below minor flood stage for Nantucket as well as locations like 
Boston for the Sun/Mon high tides. However, their "reasonable 
worst case" indicates there is potential for Nantucket to reach 
minor flood stage Monday. 

Will continue to reassess this potential over the next day/two 
for possible coastal flood headlines, but significant flooding 
is not expected.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Monday for 
     ANZ230>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/FT
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Loconto/FT
MARINE...Loconto/FT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Loconto/Mensch