Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

52°F

10/11/2026 10:50pm

Lexington Conditions: Heavy rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 51.6°F / 10.9°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.93 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 3 miles
Rain Today: 1.36 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 071124
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
724 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances are increasing for the Sunday/Monday period.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry weather prevails this week with continued seasonable 
  temperatures after a very chilly start this morning. 

- The holiday weekend favors dry weather for the first half, but
  chances are increasing that remnants of a tropical system
  bring rain to the region Sunday/Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry weather prevails this week with continued 
seasonable temperatures after a very chilly start this morning. 

Very chilly temperatures out there as of 3AM with 32F in Orange, 35F 
in Taunton, and 35F in Willimantic to name a few. This is the result 
of high pressure overhead promoting efficient radiational cooling 
with calm winds and clear skies. The exception is along the coast 
and in urban centers where, for instance, Boston and Providence are 
49F and 45F respectively. It will be a quick warm-up today as winds 
back out of the SW advecting in warm air and moisture ahead of a 
weak trough that swings through on Thursday. This trough will do a 
few things. First, it will make for warmer temperatures. This goes 
for afternoon highs thanks to a warmer airmass (925mb temps 5C 
warmer than yesterday) as well as overnight lows (modest LLJ keeping 
the boundary layer from decoupling). Resulting highs will reach into 
the mid 60s today and the low 70s on Thursday before a trailing cold 
front brings cooler weather Friday into the weekend. The second 
impact of this trough will be increasing moisture going into 
Thursday which will lead to higher dewpoints (humidity) and 
increased cloudcover ahead of the cold front. Marginal moisture, 
though, will mean showers are isolated at best. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...The holiday weekend favors dry weather for the first 
half, but chances are increasing that remnants of a tropical system 
bring rain to the region Sunday/Monday. 

High pressure solidly in control on Saturday will bring a beautiful, 
seasonably cool day with plenty of sun. Attention then turns to the 
latter half of the holiday weekend. Unfortunately the probability of 
unsettled weather around Sunday/Monday has increased. We are 
monitoring Tropical Depression Nine in the Gulf which will 
eventually make its way north up the Mississippi Valley, potentially 
interacting with a northern stream trough and being swept over the 
northeast bringing wet weather sometime Sunday or Monday. Confidence 
has increased in this outcome as probabilities of at least 0.01" of 
rain have increased in both the EPS and GEFS ensembles. Certainly 
nothing is set in stone at this point, but it is worth keeping an 
eye on how the forecast evolves over the next several days if you 
have outdoor plans.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions through Thursday. Calm winds tonight then shift 
to the SW Wed into Wed night with some 20-25 knot gusts expected
Wed afternoon. Gusty SW winds continue Thursday. Slight chance
SHRA. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. 

Friday: VFR. Breezy. 

Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence.

Winds shift to the SW Wed into Wed night. Some SW wind gusts of
20-25 knots expected Wed afternoon and night. Some potential to
approach small craft advisory level winds but things are too
marginal to issue a headline at this point. 

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. 

Friday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ002>004.
MA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ004>006-009-
     011>013-017-018-020-021-026.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ002-003-008-
     010.
RI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...BW