Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

53°F

10/11/2026 7:43pm

Lexington Conditions: Heavy rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 52.9°F / 11.6°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 30.08 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 3 miles
Rain Today: 0.48 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 080458
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1258 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small craft advisories have been issued for many of our coastal 
waters tonight into Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps continue to moderate Thu with highs reaching into the 
  lower-middle 70s in many locations. Mainly dry weather continues 
  with a few brief spot showers possible with a cold front.  

- Dry weather prevails Friday through early Sunday, with another
  frosty start possible Saturday. Rain is increasingly likely
  late Sunday into Columbus Day, though uncertainty remains with
  onset timing and rainfall amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps continue to moderate Thu with highs reaching 
into the lower-middle 70s in many locations. Mainly dry weather 
continues with a few brief spot showers possible with a cold front. 

High pressure will continue to shift east of the region tonight as a 
cold front approaches from the west on Thursday. A modest southwest 
LLJ ahead of this cold front should keep most locations from 
decoupling tonight. This will result in a much milder night than 
what we saw last night. Overnight low temps should only drop into 
the middle 40s to the lower 50s in most locations with middle 50s in 
the Urban Heat Island of Boston. 

A moisture starved cold front and associated pre-frontal trough will 
be approaching the area from the west near daybreak Thu. This will 
result in a period of mid-level cloudiness and a few brief passing 
showers possible...mainly Thu morning. However...any showers will be 
very short-lived in a given location and pretty much looking at a 
dry day. Otherwise...partial sunshine with 925T around +14C should 
result in high temps mainly in the lower to middle 70s in many 
locations. There is a low risk for a few additional spot showers 
ahead of the cold front too...but again the majority of the day is 
dry. A bit of a breeze out of the west southwest too...but overall a 
very nice day. 

Winds diminish Thu night with skies becoming clear. This will allow 
for a good night of radiational cooling with low temps mainly in the 
40s...but some upper 30s possible in the normally coolest outlying 
locations. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather prevails Friday through early Sunday, 
with another frosty start possible Saturday. Rain is increasingly 
likely late Sunday into Columbus Day, though uncertainty remains 
with onset timing and rainfall amounts.

The extended forecast remains on track with no major shifts. Strong 
1030+ mb high pressure builds over the Northeast Friday and 
Saturday, supporting sunny and dry conditions. Highs Friday are 
seasonably cool in the post-frontal airmass, mainly in the lower to 
middle 60s. WAA develops aloft Saturday as 925 mb temperatures 
increase from around +8C Friday to +9C to +12C Saturday, supporting 
highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Another frosty start is 
possible Saturday, especially in the typically colder locations 
where light/calm winds favor effective radiational cooling. The NBM 
doesn't capture this particularly well, so blended in MOS guidance, 
resulting in lows in the mid 30s across the colder locations while 
the urban core remains in the mid to upper 40s.

Confidence is high in dry weather Friday through early Sunday given 
strong ensemble agreement on high pressure dominating the Northeast. 
Confidence decreases thereafter with respect to timing and rainfall 
amounts, though it is looking increasingly likely that rain arrives 
sometime late Sunday and continues into Columbus Day. High pressure 
shifts east Sunday as remnant moisture from Isaias begins to 
approach southern New England. Isaias, currently over the southwest 
Gulf, is expected to make landfall Friday night on the Gulf Coast. 
Guidance still shows a fairly wide window for the onset of rain, 
ranging from late Sunday morning to after sunset, but confidence is 
moderate to high that rain occurs Sunday night into Monday.

There are signals that this could be a soaking rain, though 
confidence in amounts remains lower. PWATs increase to 2-3 standard 
deviations above climatology, while DESI probabilities for 0.50+ 
inches of rain from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday range from around 45 
percent across northern Massachusetts to 60-70 percent along coastal 
Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Probabilities for 2+ inches remain 
low, around 10-15 percent and mainly confined to Block Island, 
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

Forecast confidence becomes quite low by Tuesday, though the pattern 
favors continued unsettled weather as a cold front potentially 
approaches from the west. Otherwise, no significant changes to 
temperatures, with highs generally in the 60s to around 70 Sunday 
through Tuesday and overnight lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions continue through Friday. S winds of 5-15 knots 
early this morning with some 20+ knot gusts at times. A few 
brief passing showers possible mainly Thu morning...but this 
would be short- lived. WSW wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots expected
Thu...but these should diminish and become W by Thu night. VFR
Friday with W wind 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA.

Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence.

A SW low level jet ahead of an approaching cold front will result in 
SW wind gusts of 20-25 knots developing tonight and persisting into 
Thu afternoon. Small craft advisories have been posted for most of 
our waters. Wind gusts should drop below small craft thresholds 
later Thu and especially Thu night. 

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Columbus Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for 
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/Dooley
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...Frank/Dooley