Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 061342
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
842 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwest winds will diminish this afternoon. High
pressure building in tonight brings a clear and chilly night,
but clouds increase again Friday to go along with increasing
southwest breezes. A cold front approaches Friday night into
early Saturday with a period of showers, followed by dry and
mild weather Saturday afternoon. Another cold front brings more
showers to the region sometime Sunday into early Monday,
followed by much chillier weather later Monday and especially by
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
600 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Windy through early-morning, with gusts in the 35-45 mph
range; gusts steadily decrease through the day.
* Mix of sun and clouds, dry with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Details:
Just a quick update that previous wind advisories which were in
effect were cancelled at 5 AM. Currently just Nantucket was
still gusting around 45-50 mph, but this ends up short-lived and
the risk for hazardous wind gusts has ended. Remainder of the
discussion is still valid and is below.
Intervals of sun and stratocumulus clouds today, combined with
cold advection today will bring a deepening mixed layer. Since
we'll be able to tap into a deeper portion of the lower
atmosphere, we could see a secondary perk-up in gusts but BUFKIT
momentum transfer progs suggest winds in the top of the mixed
layer around 35 kt thru early afternoon. So thinking NW gusts
more in the 25-35 mph range through the early afternoon, and
then continuing to decrease as we near sundown.
Current temps are in the upper 40s to mid 50s; temperatures not
likely to climb much as sunshine is offset by strong cold advection.
Highs may only climb a couple degrees from current values.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
300 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Clear, light winds, rather chilly tonight. Lows in the 20s in most
areas!
* Increasing clouds Fri, but dry with modest SW gusts to 25 mph.
Highs upper 40s terrain to the mid/upper 50s rest of Southern New
England.
Details:
WNW winds slacken early tonight as p-gradient relaxes. Sfc ridge in
place with very dry air and 925-850 mb thermal trough at -1 to -3C
gradually moving offshore. Combined with "solar winter"/longer
nights, it will set the stage for a rather chilly night, and it
could end up being one of the coldest nights we've seen in quite
some time. Undercut NBM on lows, with widespread mid/upper 20s
being pretty common, except around freezing for Boston and out
over the Outer Cape.
High pressure then shifts offshore Fri, with returning moderately-
strong warm advection pattern for the aftn. Pretty chilly start to
Fri and shallow mixing depths too, but despite early-day advance of
mid to high clouds, temps should rebound into the upper 40s to the
mid/upper 50s. Tightening SWly pressure gradient supports 20-25 mph
gusts despite shallow mixing too. NBM too early/aggressive with PoPs
associated with front, and sided things dry. Better chances after
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* One round of showers Fri night into Sat AM followed by another
period of showers sometime Sun into early Mon
* Highs mainly in the 50s to near 60 Fri & Sun with Sat the mildest
day with highs in the lower to middle 60s
* Turning colder later Mon with highs Tue in the upper 30s & 40s
with even some flurries/sprinkles possible
Details...
This weekend...
A shortwave/cold front crosses the region Fri night into early Sat.
Ahead of this front...a modest southwest LLJ of 50+ knots coupled
with a Pwat surge over 1 inch will bring a period of showers
sometime Fri night into early Sat. Drier weather follows by Sat
afternoon but the airmass is still quite mild. 850T of +4C or
greater coupled with good mixing on westerly flow should allow for a
mild Sat afternoon. High temps should top off in the lower to middle
60s across much of the region...a solid 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year.
Monday through Thursday...
The next low pressure system will be lifting northeastward across
the eastern Great Lakes and into eastern Canada Sun into early Mon.
There also may be some secondary development near the coast. This
should result in another round of showers sometime Sun into early
Mon. Much chillier weather follows later Mon into Tue as a deep
upper trough crosses the region. Looking at a slight moderation in
temps Wednesday as heights rise before a reinforcing shortwave
arrives Thursday. In fact...high temps on Tue will only be in the
upper 30s and 40s with a gusty west wind. There might be a few
flurries/sprinkles with the shortwave trough. Lows Tue night will be
mainly in the 20s with dry weather following for Wed and highs in
the 40s to near 50.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update:
Today: High confidence.
Mainly VFR, wouldn't entirely rule out a MVFR base around
ORH/BAF. Gusty NW winds around 28-35 kt thru 14-16z, then
gradually subsiding to mid 20s-kt gusts for the afternoon, then
gusts ease to sustained winds around 8-12 kt by sundown.
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. Easing WNW to W winds to light, but trend light WSW/SW
by the pre-dawn hours.
Friday: High confidence.
VFR, increasing mid/high cloud canopy. Light SW winds to start,
but they increase during the late morning to around 10-12 kt
with gusts 20-25 kt. A low prob of low-level shear/turbulence
especially western terminals.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. NW gusts to 35 kt early
thru mid-morning, but steadily decreasing by late morning into
the afternoon.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
* 845 AM Update *
Winds have begun to subside a little quicker than forecast. so
we have lowered Gale Warnings on all but outer waters to Small
Craft Advisories with 25kt gusts expected through late
afternoon.
SW winds increase again for Fri, and trend toward 25-30 kt on
most waters by Fri aftn. Low chance at gale force gusts on the
southern waters.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain likely.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain
likely, isolated thunderstorms.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230-
236.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
ANZ231>234-251.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/FT
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Loconto/FT
MARINE...JWD
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