Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 261711
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
111 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly quiet through tonight.
- A round or two of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
Thu afternoon into Fri, along with summerlike humidity.
- Mainly dry and seasonable weather follows for this weekend.
Temperatures may trend above normal early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly quiet through tonight.
High pressure remains in control of our weather through tonight.
Only expecting some clouds passing by at times. Rather light NW
to W winds become local seabreezes along the coast by mid to
late morning. Near to slightly above normal temperatures
anticipated.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A round or two of scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Thu afternoon into Fri, along with
summerlike humidity.
Model guidance was in relatively good agreement on the overall
synoptic pattern. However, there are still some timing
differences yet to be resolved. A low pressure should be moving
across southeast Canada, pushing its associated fronts past
southern New England. This should generate a round our two of
showers or thunderstorms from some time Thursday afternoon into
Friday. The greatest risk for thunderstorms will be in the warm
sector ahead of a cold front. A faster timing would result in a
greater risk for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon. At this time, still favoring this risk to
remain mainly to our west. These details could change with later
forecasts.
Even if the stronger convection remains to our west, noticeably
higher humidity should still arrive. Surface dew points should rise
well through the 60s into the lower 70s for some.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and seasonable weather follows for
this weekend. Temperatures may trend above normal early next
week.
High pressure builds in behind the departing shortwave/cold
front for this weekend. The result will be mainly dry and
seasonable weather Sat into Sun. Ensembles indicating upper
level flow may become more westerly early next week, allowing
for temperatures to trend above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
This afternoon...High confidence.
VFR. Light W-SW winds with local seabreezes along portions of
the very immediate coast. Speeds 6-12 kts.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. Calm/light SW winds. IFR in patchy ground fog and stratus
possible late in the typically prone locations.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible after
18Z with greater risk for western MA/CT terminals. Local MVFR
possible in any SHRA and TSRA.
Thursday night...High confidence.
VFR initially then cigs drop to MVFR/IFR for interior terminals
in lingering SHRA/TSRA, mainly through 6-8z.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance
TSRA.
Friday Night through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Thursday night...High confidence.
Fairly quiet boating conditions with high pressure over the
waters. Light NW to W winds to start with local seabreezes
towards the coast late this morning and afternoon. Winds become
more S to SW tonight, the increase Thursday. By Thursday
evening, rain and thunderstorm chances increase from east to
west through midnight.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Belk/Frank
AVIATION...Frank/BW
MARINE...Belk/Frank
Meta data:
ID: d4265036-dada-4f0b-bc2f-643fdae2c044
Link:
https://api.weather.gov/products/d4265036-dada-4f0b-bc2f-643fdae2c044
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX