Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

68°F

6/26/2026 4:16am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 67.6°F / 19.8°C
Dew Point: 59.0°F
Relative Humidity: 74%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 30.01 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 260534
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
134 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tweaked rainfall chances and timing overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues through the evening before the risk for
  scattered showers and a few thunderstorms returns tonight into
  Friday.

- Some showers expected Saturday. followed by a warming 
  and drying trend into early next week.

- Warm and humid mid week. Risk for some showers with a warm
  frontal passage sometime Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues through the evening 
before the risk for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms 
returns tonight into Friday.

A weak surface low tracks across New England late this evening.
Its associated warm front will also move through, allowing for 
the chance of showers and thunderstorms to progress from west to
east. The risk for thunder remains quite low given the lack of 
instability present overnight. However, some embedded rumbles 
of thunder over western MA are possible where a more favorable 
environment resides.

Updated the timing and coverage this evening based on recent
radar data. Many of the high resolution mesoscale models were 
also more bullish on measurable rainfall, mainly after midnight.
Trended the forecast to higher rainfall chances overnight. 

These showers will likely dissipate Friday morning as the
weakening low shifts further away. It'll feel slightly more
humid on Friday with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. As
another surface low tracks into the region on Friday, this will 
bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
evening/night. It looks like the convection will be fairly
scattered and the severe threat remains isolated. Even though
instability remains limited, the effective bulk shear looks
impressive with values ranging from 40- 50kt. Therefore, the
primary concern with thunderstorms that do develop will damaging 
wind gusts. It is worth noting that southern New England is also
under a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Some showers expected Saturday. followed by a 
warming and drying trend into early next week. 

Guidance continued to have a similar idea about a low pressure 
tacking along a cold front. However, the track of this low 
pressure and front were quite different. The NAM was the most 
aggressive keeping showers farther north across southern New 
England. Most of the guidance is farther south. Have the 
greatest confidence in showers towards the south coast of New 
England. Still thinking the timing could be off, and Saturday 
could turn out drier than the current forecast.

Dry weather is expected to return heading into the start of next 
week as high pressure associated with an amplified upper level 
ridge moves into southern New England. A warming trend also 
kicks off for the start of the work week, continuing into 
midweek. However, details on just how warm it may get are still 
uncertain at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warm and humid mid week. Risk for some showers 
with a warm frontal passage sometime Wednesday night into 
Thursday.

Increasing heat and humidity continues into the second half of
next week. Much of this time is expected to remain dry, but 
there should be a period of showers with the passage of this 
warm front. The location details for these showers are not yet 
known.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through This Afternoon...Moderate confidence. 

Showers are tracking from west to east this morning and will
continue through southern New England through around 14z when
they are expected to dissipate. The risk for embedded thunder
among these showers has gone down considerably, so TSRA was
removed from TAFs before 12z today. Mostly VFR outside of 
showers and storms today, though areas of MVFR and even some IFR 
are possible this morning in wake of showers. Risk for fog at
ACK remains this morning as well.

The risk for isolated thunderstorms, some of which may turn
severe, returns in the afternoon primarily after 21z. PROB30s
were included at most terminals to account for this risk.
Periods of MVFR visibilities and ceilings possible with any
afternoon showers and storms. Uncertainty remains in exact
location/overall coverage.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Showers and storms should clear the region by midnight. Patchy
fog leading to areas of MVFR/IFR may develop overnight across 
much of SE MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Low stratus also a
possibility, particularly towards the Cape and Islands. Winds
shift more W and go light to calm overnight.

Saturday...Moderate confidence.

Mostly lower end VFR with areas of MVFR. Showers mostly scraping
along the south coast are favored; lower confidence in those 
going much further north than that. These may also approach
later in the day than expected. Light winds.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night through Monday Night: VFR. 

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday...High confidence.

Light south-southwesterly winds persist through the afternoon, 
before shifting more southerly overnight. It's possible to see 
some breezier winds this evening (gusts up to 20 kt) across the 
waters. Seas should remain 2 to 4 ft. Showers and thunderstorms 
may start to impact the waters late tonight into Friday.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance 
of rain showers. 

Sunday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/Dennis
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin/Dennis
MARINE...Belk/Dennis