Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

34°F

2/25/2026 8:30pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 34.0°F / 1.1°C
Dew Point: 30.2°F
Relative Humidity: 86%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 3 mph
Barometer: 29.63 in Rising Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.5 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 250503
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1203 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A quick burst of snow may impact parts of the morning commute 
Wednesday. Latest guidance has trended the system 
Thursday/Friday further south and away from the region, but we 
will continue to monitor this.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick burst of snow very late tonight and Wednesday morning
  will bring 1-3 inches accumulation, then turning milder in the
  afternoon.

- Weaker coastal low pressure may bring some unsettled weather 
  sometime late Thursday into Friday, but has been trending 
  south away from the region.

- Drier for the weekend before the risk for more unsettled 
  weather returns to start the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A quick burst of snow very late tonight and 
Wednesday morning will 1-3 inches accumulation, then turning 
milder in the afternoon.

Brief shortwave ridging this evening will bring a period of 
mostly clear skies with some cirrus which will allow for decent 
radiational cooling during the first half of the night. Temps 
expected to drop into the single numbers and teens before rising
late tonight as southerly winds develop and clouds thicken 
ahead of next system. A mid level shortwave moves eastward from 
the Gt Lakes late tonight into Wed as a warm front approaches 
from the SW. Decent shot of warm advection/isentropic lift 
develops which will be enhanced at the nose of a 40 kt low level
jet. This will result in snow developing from west to east late
tonight and Wed morning. This will be a minor QPF event with 
snowfall averaging 1-3 inches but much of it could fall in a 3 
hour period. 

While the higher amounts are favored over the higher elevations, it 
is possible there could be a secondary max just inland from the 
south coast across RI and SE MA. Interesting set-up with low level 
jet overriding an antecedent cold airmass. Given the low level cold 
air initially in place, the stronger southerly winds may take a bit 
longer to mix down to the surface near the coast which would be 
enough for a quick burst of snow with brief 1"/hr rates possible as 
suggested by the HREF. This would be from the enhanced forcing for 
ascent at the nose of the LLJ. If the southerly winds were quicker 
to mix to the surface, this would diminish the risk for this brief 
burst of snow near the south coast. Eventually the south winds will 
increase and temps will rise above freezing with snow probably 
ending as some rain near the coast. This is a quick moving system 
and snow will be ending from W to E around midday or early afternoon 
but the core of the event will probably be in a 3 hr period. The 
snow is expected to develop from 5-8 AM from W to E so it will 
impact parts of the morning commute, especially western New Eng 
where the snow begins earlier. After the snow ends, temps will rise 
through the 30s with highs upper 30s, except holding in the low-mid 
30s higher elevations. Gusty S-SW winds will develop near the coast 
Wed morning with gusts to 25-30 mph as the low level jet moves 
across the region. 

Key Message 2...Weaker coastal low pressure may bring some 
unsettled weather sometime late Thursday into Friday, but has 
been trending south away from the region.

Another coastal low exiting offshore of the Carolina coast may pass 
south of the region some time late Thursday into Friday. The latest 
guidance has trended the system further south and away from the 
region, but a grazing pass along the south coast and Islands is not 
out of the question just yet. Ensemble probs have trended down for 
measurable snow Friday morning, ranging between 20-40% over the 
south coast across the ensemble suites. The GEFS and ECMWF ENS are 
the more bullish ensembles on this, with the GEPS only hinting at an 
area around the Cape with 30% probs for measurable snow Friday 
morning. Will need to continue to monitor, but the latest trends are 
favoring lesser impacts if any at all with this system.

Key Message 3...Drier for the weekend before the risk for more 
unsettled weather returns to start the week

High pressure builds in briefly before going offshore as the day 
goes on Saturday and a front moves through the region over the 
weekend, which will end the brief period of possible warmer 
temperatures Saturday. Temperatures at 925 mb and 850 mb get just 
above 0C for Saturday afternoon in the midst of more southwesterly 
flow, which may support high temperatures climbing well into the 
40s. A front moves through sometime in the second half of the 
weekend, injecting another cold shot of air into the region to start 
the week. Some unsettled weather could return for the start of the 
week which we will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Today: High Confidence on snow, Moderate Confidence on CIGS

Snow will move in from west to east this morning, brining a
brief 3-4 hour period of light, possibly moderate snow between
10-18z. low end MVFR/IFR CIGS will lag the snow by about 30 to
60 mins as the boundary layer gradually saturates. Visibility 
in snow should be in the 1-2SM range. Cape and Island terminals 
likely remain rain with rain lasting later into the afternoon.

Southerly LLJ moves in from west to east with the snow which
will bring LLWS concerns with 35-40 knots at 2kft from the S
while surface winds across the region remain S around 10 knots. 

Snow and wind shear concerns end early this afternoon, but
IFR/MVFR CIGS likely linger until low-mid level westerlies can
clear out some of the clouds and low level moisture. 

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

CIGS gradually improve to VFR tonight, but before then, there
could widley scattered rain/snow showers from roughly 00z-08z.
Winds aloft increase from the WSW at 35-40 knots, but the
nocturnal inversion will leave surface winds under 10 knots
leading to continued wind shear concerns.

Tomorrow: High Confidence

VFR. Light westerly winds.


KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Snow reaches the terminal around 14z with low end MVFR/IFR CIGS
following shortly after. Gusty southerly winds expected later
this morning into the afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots. 

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Snow reaches the terminal around 12z with low end MVFR CIGS
following shortly behind. Light southerly winds with LLWS today.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Friday Night: VFR. 

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all waters late tonight 
into Wed for a period of SW gusts to 25-30 kt as a low level jet 
moves across the waters. Winds will diminish Wed evening but 5-8 ft 
seas will linger over southern waters through Wed night. Vsbys lower 
late tonight into Wed morning in a period of snow and rain.  

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of snow. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of snow. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. 

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for 
     ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for 
     ANZ231-236-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for 
     ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for 
     ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday 
     for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJC/Hrencecin
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KJC