Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

53°F

10/11/2026 7:41pm

Lexington Conditions: Heavy rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 52.9°F / 11.6°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 30.08 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 3 miles
Rain Today: 0.46 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 102358
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories start 8 PM Sunday evening for the
southern waters. Potential for rain to last a bit longer Monday, 
especially across the south coast, Cape and Islands.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions through Sunday morning. Rain arrives 
  Sunday afternoon and lasts through the night. 

- Becoming drier Monday. Round of showers Tuesday into Wednesday
  morning, then dry through Thursday night. Another round of
  showers possible some time Friday into Saturday. 

- Quick round of rain around mid week, then dry weather returns
  by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Pleasant conditions through Sunday morning.  
Rain arrives Sunday afternoon and lasts through the night.

Pleasant and dry conditions continue through a good portion of
Sunday, with partly cloudy skies and low winds through tonight. 
Expecting to see some radiational cooling tonight with calm
winds, but light cloud cover will limit just how far
temperatures will drop. Overnight lows likely bottom out in
lower 40s for most, upper 30s in the higher elevations.

Attention then turns to Sunday afternoon and evening as the
remnants of Hurricane Isaias make their way north and east with 
the jet stream. As it exits off the DelMarVa coast and enter our
waters south of the Islands, it's expected to strengthen and
pass north of the 40/70 benchmark. PWATs will likely surge to
near 2.0", mostly along the south coast, Cape, and Islands. With 
rain arriving Sunday afternoon (early PM for the interior, later
PM for RI and eastern MA) and lingering into Monday, rainfall 
totals will likely be in the 0.75 inch to 1.0 inch range. It's 
possible some heavier rain bands set up, but confidence is low 
on where or when exactly those could develop; therefore, some 
areas could see local higher rainfall totals... possibly up to 
1.5 inches across the south coast, Cape, and Islands. 
Thankfully, the bulk of the LLJ will be kept aloft and offshore,
so the worst of the winds will be kept offshore and on the 
order of 23 to 30 knots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next quick moving round of rain comes 
Sunday afternoon and evening, continuing overnight and exiting 
Monday morning.

Low pressure slowly moves away from southern New England 
Monday. This will gradually bring an end to our showers from 
northwest to southeast. Still some disagreement on how quickly 
it all ends. The GFS remains on the more progressive side of the
solution envelope. The most likely area for showers to linger 
longer will be towards the Cape and islands. Further adjustments
to the timing are possible with later forecasts.

Our region then has a brief drier period Monday night into 
Tuesday morning. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Quick round of rain around mid week, then dry 
weather returns by Thursday. 

Our region should then get clipped by a pair of low pressures, 
each taking a different track. The first should pass from the 
Great Lakes across northern New England Tuesday into Tuesday 
night. The risk for showers arrives across northern MA during 
the morning, then gradually moves south Tuesday night as the 
associated cold front approaches. Drying out Wednesday as this 
front finally moves farther offshore during the day.

High pressure over eastern Canada should briefly take over our 
weather Wednesday night into Thursday night.

The forecast for next Friday and Saturday is uncertain. A low 
pressure moving east across Canada could swing its associated 
fronts across our region during this time. The issue continues 
to be one of timing. This low pressure is quite distant from 
southern New England. Thinking a slower onset timing is more 
likely to develop with later forecasts given a high pressure 
over the North Atlantic. Then there is the question of how 
quickly it dries out on Saturday. We should see a period of 
showers some time Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence. 

VFR. Light N to NE winds become light and variable by 04Z 
Sunday for most. Winds like become light S/SSE by 04Z across the
Cape and islands.

Sunday and Sunday Night: High confidence. 

VFR. S/SE winds 5-10 kts with RA arriving from west to east 
generally between 16Z-20Z. MVFR ceilings and -SHRA overspread 
the region from west to east 21z-24z. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. 

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. 

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday Night: High confidence.

Winds 10-15 kt today become light northeasterly late this 
evening into tonight as high pressure approaches. Seas 3 ft or 
less all waters. Sunday winds increase again ahead of 
approaching low pressure, S/SW 10-15 kts gusting 15-20 kts. The 
remnants of Hurricane Isaias arrive Sunday PM, building seas 5 
to 10 ft and wind gusts 23 to 30 knots by Sunday night. SCAs 
have been issued starting 8PM Sunday evening for the southern 
waters, including coastal RI waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Columbus Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. 

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for 
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/McMinn
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn