Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

65°F

6/25/2026 2:14am

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 64.6°F / 18.1°C
Dew Point: 57.2°F
Relative Humidity: 77%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.93 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221854
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of heavy rain possible later today into early 
  Tuesday.

- Drier air with seasonable temperatures expected midweek.
  Chances for rain return for the end of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of heavy rain possible later today into
early Tuesday.

Have high confidence in a widespread, soaking rain across our
region later today into Tuesday morning. Even at this time
range, there remain different ideas on where the bands of
heaviest rainfall will be. Currently have the greatest
confidence across northern CT and western and central MA, where
terrain will assist the dynamic lifting processes.

Thinking total rainfall of 1.0-1.5 inches is the most likely
outcome. The probability for 2+ inches of rainfall remains 
about 30 to 40 percent. Not expecting flooding, as our region
remains abnormally dry. Flash flood guidance is 2-3 inches in 
an hour, which we should not achieve. Overall, this is looking 
like a beneficial rainfall for southern New England. 

We should dry out from west to east as a low pressure along the
south coast of New England moves offshore Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier air with seasonable temperatures expected
midweek. Chances for rain return for the end of this week.

Surface high pressure will keep the weather dry through the 
middle of this week, after the rain comes to an end on Tuesday.

A low pressure system is expected to move into the Great Lakes 
by Thursday, then track into southeastern Canada by the end of 
this week. In addition, a weak shortwave trough should pass 
across the northeast. This combination will bring the next 
rainfall chances, beginning some time Thursday night into  
Friday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
during this time as well, especially Friday afternoon, with the
highest chances across western MA.

The GEFS has low, but non-zero, probability for severe storms 
Friday, as well as some of the other ensemble and machine 
learning guidance. However, this probability varies significantly
amongst the guidance still. Given this spread, and how far out 
in the forecast it is, confidence on overall severe potential
remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update

Today: High confidence. 

VFR conditions. -SHRA becoming more widespread late afternoon-
early evening. Ceilings decrease to MVFR from west to east after
late afternoon. SSE to E winds at 6-12 kts.  

Tonight: Moderate confidence (ceilings/thunder probs)

Ceilings deteriorate to IFR/LIFR overnight. Steady rainfall with
pockets of heavy rain. Location of heavier rain uncertain due it
be embedded heavy rain. Patchy fog possible for Cape and Island
terminals potentially down to 1/2 or 1/4SM at ACK early Tuesday
morning. Easterly winds 8-12 kts. 

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

IFR/LIFR at least for the morning. Scattered showers through the
day with a few embedded downpours possible. Embedded storm
possible for SE MA terminals through mid-morning. Scattered showers
continue through much of the day. There is another risk for an 
isolated embedded storm through early evening; however, 
confidence is lower on this potential. Wind NW 5-10 kts,
shifting NE at BOS in the afternoon. Gradually improving
ceilings from west to east after 20Z through the evening. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence.

Rain. Moderate to heavy at times. Ceilings fall to MVFR after 
00Z and to IFR after 03Z. LIFR ceilings are possible. Winds may
vary from SW to easterly this afternoon becoming steadier east 
tonight. Potential for embedded thunder overnight mainly after
06 through 12Z. Scattered showers continue Tuesday with NW winds
shifting NE in the afternoon 8-12 kts. 

 
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate
confidence in timing.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. 

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

A Small Craft Advisory continues for the outer coastal waters 
south of Block Island and east to Nantucket for this afternoon 
into Tuesday morning. Potential for gusts to 25 kt across some
of the waters across the Cape and islands, as well as the
eastern outer coastal waters. However, confidence is not high
enough yet that it will persist long enough to warrant expanding
the Advisory. This will need to be monitored with later
forecasts.

Rain arrives across the waters tonight, before finally moving
off to the east some time Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall at times expected, 
resulting in poor visibility less than 1 mile at times.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms. 

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk
AVIATION...Mensch
MARINE...Belk