Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

34°F

2/25/2026 8:30pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 34.0°F / 1.1°C
Dew Point: 30.2°F
Relative Humidity: 86%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 3 mph
Barometer: 29.63 in Rising Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.5 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 201750
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1250 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect from 10 AM today to 
7 AM Saturday due to accumulating snow and ice, leading to
slippery road conditions.

There continues to be uncertainty with regard to the coastal 
storm late Sunday into Monday, but we are still favoring a less
impactful offshore track at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Messy day on tap with rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain
  expected. Mostly a rain event for areas southeast of I-95. 
  All locations will see a change back to snow tonight with 
  light accumulations possible. Slippery road conditions 
  expected.

- Light snow and snow showers continue Saturday with limited
  additional accumulations.

- Coastal storm late Sunday-Monday more than likely to miss or
  just brush southern New England, but too soon to rule out a 
  more widespread high impact outcome. 

- Another round of unsettled weather mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Messy day on tap with rain, snow, sleet and
freezing rain expected. Mostly a rain event for areas southeast 
of I-95. All locations will see a change back to snow tonight 
with light accumulations possible. Slippery road conditions 
expected.

Winter Weather Advisories for interior Southern New England to
just east of the I-95 corridor today into tonight.

Low pressure continues moving northeast towards the Great Lakes
spreading an area of warm front-driven precipitation over much
of the northeast CONUS England by the afternoon. Next, a
secondary area of low pressure develops somewhere S of Long
Island and moves east overnight. The trend in guidance has been 
to keep the column cooler with each run. Whereas last night's
00z output showed the mid-level warm nose making it well north of
the Mass Pike, the vast majority of tonight high- resolution
guidance shows the warm nose struggling to make it to the Mass
border. This trend appears to be driven by stronger cold
advection/cold air damming in NH/ME being moved further south by 
the departing secondary low pressure. 

Still a somewhat challenging p-type forecast under the warm
nose, but the trend has been for colder temps in this layer. In 
terms of sensible weather, a colder above 0C layer means that
areas along and north of the Mass Pike can expect a mostly snow 
and sleet event while areas further south see more in the way of
sleet and freezing rain. As the last shift aptly described it, 
"a potpourri of precipitation types". The higher confidence part
of the forecast comes after the heaviest precip Friday night as
the mid levels cool. Strengthening northerly flow means that the 
entire CWA transitions to a period of light snow in all areas
Friday night. Winter Weather Advisories continue for most of
interior Southern New England. 

Still feel the HREF has a good handle on precipitation types and
was used for weather types/changeovers. Forecast remains largely 
on track since the previous discussion. Precipitation breaks out
in far western New England after the Friday morning commute, and 
gradually spreads east-northeast into the afternoon. Areas near
and north of the Mass Pike and into the Merrimack Valley/North
Shore should remain as mostly snow for the duration of this
event, where the greatest accumulations of wet snow are forecast 
(3-5" with spot 6" amounts along the NH border). Areas along and
south of the Mass Pike southward into Northern Connecticut and
northwest Rhode Island are more likely to see a mix of precip
types, with accreting freezing rain (up to two tenths of an
inch), sleet and minor wet snow (C-3"). 

Lower snowfall totals expected in the Boston metro area due to
stiff onshore flow helping to warm highs into the upper 30s. Any 
wintry precip that falls during the day likely struggles to
accumulate. Things change somewhat quickly Friday night as
colder northerly flow drives southward Friday evening. Expect a 
transition over from wintry mix of rain/sleet over to a minor- 
accumulating but greasy light snow with a couple inches of snow 
accumulation forecast. While totals will be light (1-2 inches) 
the timing of the transition will not be ideal for the evening 
commute and will likely result in slick travel. Opted to not go 
with an advisory as confidence in snowfall and sleet totals over
2 inches is still somewhat low. 

Elsewhere, this is a mostly rain event SE of I-95 with a period
of light snow Friday night. In these areas, a coating to a half 
inch of snow is possible mainly on grassy surfaces or side
streets. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light snow and snow showers continue Saturday
with limited additional accumulations.

A leftover inverted trough continues light snow/snow shower
activity through mid morning Saturday. Moisture profiles will
become increasingly unfavorable for snow growth as the DGZ dries 
out. Because of that, accumulations if any would be limited to 
an inch or less. Highs may only range around 30-32 for northeast
MA, and in the mid to upper 30s for RI, northern CT and
southeast MA.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal storm late Sunday-Monday more than
likely to miss or just brush southern New England, but too 
soon to rule out a more widespread high impact outcome. 

Latest guidance suite has trended the consensus track of an
expected powerful low pressure closer to, but still southeast
of, the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday night into Monday. That said,
there remains significant spread in the details. Much can change
with the forecast for Sunday into Monday over the next 48 hours.

At present, thinking most impacts from snowfall and wind are 
confined to RI and southeastern MA. Strong winds also possible
elsewhere along the immediate coasts. This is mainly due to the
expected size of this low pressure, even with the more offshore
track. A closer track would mean more snow and wind impacts for
more of southern New England.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Another round of unsettled weather mid week. 

Zonal flow and a surface ridge of high pressure then move 
overhead briefly on Tuesday bringing a period of quiet weather 
into mid week, but another frontal system approaches late 
Wednesday bringing another chance for wet weather. However, 
with the trend toward warmer conditions, much of the warm
frontal precipitation likely falls as rain outside of the high
terrain areas at night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update: Moderate confidence due to uncertainty in 
precip type and timing of lowest conditions.

Precip continues to move east with Ptype starting as snow then
turning to sleet/freezing rain/rain. Freezing rain is most
likely in western portions of western MA and CT with sleet/snow
more likely in eastern MA. Rain/sleet most likely in RI and SE 
MA with rain most likely over the Cape and Islands. Mixed 
precip will continue through about 00z-03z tonight before 
switching back to snow/snow showers as the system exits. The 
only area not anticipated to switch back to snow is the South 
Coast and Cape/Islands. 

CIGS are quickly dropping to IFR/LIFR across the region, within
30 mins of precip starting. CIGS remain IFR/LIFR overnight even
as precip begins to taper off.

Saturday: Moderate Confidence

CIGS gradually improve to MVFR/VFR late morning to early
afternoon. Snow showers may linger into the afternoon esspically
across western MA/CT, although confidence in any snow that 
falls Saturday will be light, under a half inch. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Snow should begin around 19z this afternoon and could become
moderate briefly before becoming mixed with sleet after 22z. 
Not anticipating ptype to switch to rain at this point. ptype 
should become all snow again this evening after 02z with snow 
lingering into Saturday morning. CIGS will quickly drop to 
IFR/LIFR as snow begins this afternoon and remain there into 
Saturday morning before becoming MVFR.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Light snow should become more of a mixed precip this afternoon
with sleet and freezing rain possible. ptype switches back to
snow later this evening before tapering off overnight. CIGS
remaining IFR this evening, improving to MVFR later overnight. 

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SN.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with
areas of gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SN.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. Slight
chance SN.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the end of this week.

Increasing winds and seas this evening into Saturday as a low
pressure passes by. Winds diminish Saturday, but lingering rough
seas expected over the outer coastal waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of freezing rain, slight chance
of snow. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of snow. 

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 16 ft. Chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up
to 23 ft. Chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 22 ft. Chance of snow. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MAZ002>014-
     026.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday 
     morning for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday 
     evening for MAZ020>024.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     MAZ022>024.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for RIZ001-003.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday 
     evening for RIZ006>008.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for 
     ANZ230.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     ANZ231.
     Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for 
     ANZ232>234.
     Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon 
     for ANZ235-237.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for 
     ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ250-
     254>256.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     ANZ250-251.
     Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for 
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Belk/FT