Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

51°F

10/12/2026 1:08am

Lexington Conditions: Light rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 51.4°F / 10.8°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 95%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.83 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 3 miles
Rain Today: 0.11 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 061137
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
737 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather prevails this week with continued seasonable 
 temperatures. The holiday weekend favors dry weather, though 
 watching late Sunday into Monday for a chance of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather prevails this week with continued 
seasonable temperatures. The holiday weekend favors dry weather, 
though watching late Sunday into Monday for a chance of rain.

Cool, dry, NW flow persists today thanks to surface high pressure 
moving over NY by the afternoon and over SNE tonight into Wednesday. 
This will slacken the pressure gradient leading to a steady decrease 
in the breeziness we've seen of late. High pressure supports sunny 
skies and cold advection brings a cooler airmass overhead meaning 
highs won't get out of the 50s for most today as 925 mb temps
drop from 11-13C on Monday to 5-7C on Tuesday. The high's 
influence will be felt most overnight as clear skies and calm 
winds lead to efficient radiational cooling and much cooler low 
temperatures. Leaning on MOS guidance which handles these 
regimes better than other guidance, we should see fairly 
widespread lows in the 33-37F range. As such, a Frost Advisory 
is in effect for the typically coolest spots. 

It will be a brief cool down as a vertically stacked low near the 
Hudson Bay will send a weak trough through the northeast Wed into 
Thursday backing flow to the SW and pumping up temperatures into the 
mid 60s by Wednesday and low to mid 70s by Thursday. With this comes 
some moisture advection as well leading to higher humidity on 
Thursday ahead of the cold front. However, lacking good dynamics and 
moisture, current thinking is that Thursday evening's cold front is 
mostly dry. High pressure then builds back into New England for the 
Friday/Saturday period bringing sunny skies and seasonable 
temperatures in the 60s. This ridge of high pressure should preclude 
a disturbance passing to our north Sunday from affecting SNE. 
However, we'll continue to monitor the remnants of what is 
currently AL92 in the Gulf which may dampen the end of our 
holiday weekend; confidence in this outcome is quite low, 
though, as high pressure could very well deflect it to the 
south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today and Tonight: High confidence. 

VFR. WNW winds around 10-13 kt with gusts 22-24 kt, then
gradually subsiding from 21z Tue through the overnight period.

Wednesday...High confidence. 

VFR. Winds calm to start becoming SW 5-10 kts with gusts to 20
kts possible. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. 

Thursday Night: VFR. 

Friday: VFR. Breezy. 

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

Gust W-WNW wind and agitated seas in the wake of a cold front,
thus Small Craft Advisories for all waters. 

High pressure then moves from the central Appalachians to the 
Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Seas and winds begin to diminish 
late tonight into Tuesday and increase to 5-10 kts out of the SW
on Wednesday with seas 2-3 ft. 

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. 

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday 
     for CTZ002>004.
MA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday 
     for MAZ002>005-008>011-013-017-018-020-021-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for 
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...BW