Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

79°F

7/12/2026 2:29pm

Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 79.3°F / 26.3°C
Dew Point: 59.0°F
Relative Humidity: 50%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 1 mph
Barometer: 30.11 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 070613
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
213 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelled the flood watch for CT and lowered 
rainfall totals across Connecticut and Central Massachusetts to 1 to 
2 inches. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain, heavy at times continues through much of the day 
today. Chance for thunderstorms and isolated flooding, mainly across 
the Cape and Islands.

- Mainly dry with a warming trend through midweek followed by an 
increased chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms later in 
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain, heavy at times continues through 
much of the day today. Chance for thunderstorms and isolated 
flooding, mainly across the Cape and Islands.

Theme of the last 12 hours has been to reduce the scope and 
intensity of the flooding threat for much of the area. That being 
said, we cannot fully rule out at least isolated instances of 
flooding through this afternoon, especially across RI and much of 
Eastern MA. Current radar shows areas of tropical rain rates 
offshore in the higher PWAT airmass. Further north, it's a mostly 
stratiform cool-season type rainfall regime with cloud tops <15kft 
and KDP values <1.0 db. As a result, rain totals have, so far, 
underperformed across much of Southern New England. Environment 
becomes increasingly favorable for heavy rain into the early morning 
hours as a 925 mb LLJ increases to 30kts around weak low pressure 
and advects higher K-values northward. BUFKIT soundings across Rhode 
Island and SE MA show warm cloud depths approaching 13kft and PWAT 
values increasing to 2.00" in the predawn hours. Thus, thinking the 
highest chance for flooding will be in these areas. Looking like a 
mostly beneficial rainfall event elsewhere with much of the CWA 
experiencing D1-D2 drought conditions. Rainfall totals between 1-3" 
are still expected over much of southern New England, with lighter 
totals expected closer to the NH border. Locally higher totals 
between 2-4" are possible parts of RI, and SE MA. Even with the 
reduction in QPF among guidance, a chance for training showers and 
thunderstorms means the flood watch will remain in effect across CT, 
RI, and SE MA. 

Rainy conditions continue  through much of the day today  mainly in 
eastern MA and RI as the low pressure continues northeastward and 
its associated shortwave moves east from the Great Lakes. The bulk 
of the heavy rain is expected to remain offshore  The low passes 
offshore overnight with the upper level shortwave moving over Maine, 
and high pressure to the north continues spreading southward over 
southern New England as it departs. Showers may persist into 
overnight across eastern MA and the Islands, but these are not 
expected to be nearly as impactful as this morning's rainfall.  

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with a warming trend through midweek 
followed by an increased chance for scattered showers and 
thunderstorms later in the week.

Ridging builds across the eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday
allowing for a warming and drying trend. Closer to the surface, 925mb
temperatures rise to near 20C, allowing for surface 
temperatures to begin to creep up above seasonable norms... 
likely near 90 across most of southern New England Wednesday and
Thursday. Another shortwave trough and cold front pushing 
through sometime Thursday may bring chances for showers and 
thunderstorms Friday. Depending on the timing of the FROPA, 
showers could linger into Friday. Guidance currently shows FROPA
sometime later Thursday and well after peak heating. Future
forecasts will monitor the threat for convection as we get
closer to the late week period. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update...

Adjusted onset time of -SHRA and MVFR/IFR ceilings forward a
couple of hours.

Today...Moderate confidence. 

Any lingering VFR conditions N of ORH deteriorate to MVFR/IFR. 
Some periods of rain could be heavy at times across parts of 
RI/SE MA. An embedded t-storm or two is possible in this same 
area as well. Periods of rain will continue today especially 
across eastern MA/RI. MVFR with localized IFR conditions will 
also continue through much of the day. Winds today from the NE 
at 8-16. Some gusts to 20-25 kt primarily over the Cape and 
Islands. 

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Rain clears out of the region tonight, though onshore winds may
keep conditions generally MVFR with areas of IFR across 
southern New England. Lower cigs more likely over eastern MA and
RI. Possible lingering -SHRA and or -DZ thru 05z for the Cape
and Islands.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Higher confidence 
in overall trends, but exact timing is less certain.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. 

Wednesday Night: VFR. 

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. 

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance
TSRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

Weak low pressure passes well S of the waters and slides up
against high pressure over northern New England. Resultant NE 
wind gusts of 20-30 kt through much of the day today. These 
will likely continue through the overnight as well. Small Craft
Advisories were extended for the northeastern outer waters 
through tonight as a result. Seas to 5 ft build over the 
southern waters tonight, then shift to the eastern waters 
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Pockets of 6 ft seas are possible 
closer to the northern ocean water zones.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MAZ017>022.
RI...Flood Watch through this afternoon for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     ANZ231>235-237-251-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FT
AVIATION...McMinn/FT
MARINE...FT