Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

37°F

1/11/2026 11:25am

Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 37.2°F / 2.9°C
Dew Point: 36.1°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.65 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.07 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 051953
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
253 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes to the forecast. Biggest impact expected to 
be from freezing rain Tuesday night. Confidence is low for a brief 
period of patchy freezing drizzle over southeast MA/RI tonight. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow accumulations, a coating to 2 inches, expected this 
afternoon into tonight. Could end as a period of freezing rain  for 
some. 

- Mixed precipitation expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning. 

- Milder with rain later in the week but no flooding expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1...Light snow accumulations, a coating to 2 inches, 
expected this afternoon into tonight. Could end as a period of 
freezing rain  for some. 

Snow has already begun falling in western Massachusetts and 
Connecticut at this hour as a clipper low moves from west to east 
across the region. This precipitation shield (all snow given temps 
in the low to mid 20s) will slowly but surely spread east through 
the afternoon, reaching eastern MA by evening. Model soundings show 
a decent amount of dry air to overcome in the low levels before 
these radar returns start to be realized as snow at the surface, but 
once it does we'll see light steady snow continuing into the first 
half of the night, tapering off before sunrise. As it does, we 
continue to monitor the low probability for some light freezing 
drizzle as the DGZ dries out above subfreezing air at the surface. 
This would be patchy, with the best odds for an hour or two over 
portions of RI into southeast MA. Freezing drizzle on top of a layer 
of snow would lessen any impact as well. Overall, confidence is not 
high enough in a widespread occurrence to issue any headlines. When 
all is said and done, we expect 1-2 inches of snow north of the MA 
Pike with a coating to an inch south. 

Key Message 2...Mixed precipitation expected Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning. 

Dry start to the day on Tuesday following precip wrapping up early. 
Then comes our next in a quick succession of storm systems, this one 
a mid level shortwave and surface low moving from the Great Lakes 
Tuesday evening to the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday mid morning. This 
system pulls some moisture north with is as PWATs rise to around 
0.8"; the more critical aspect is the warm nose of air that moves in 
around 800 mb. 850 mb temps climb to +2-3C while at the surface, 
warm SW flow raises surface temps above freezing for most locations 
north and west of the I-95 corridor. Locations outside of the 
Worcester Hills and Berkshires that start as freezing rain should 
transition to rain as those temps rise, while in the high elevations 
accretion of 0.1-0.2' is possible. This will make for slippery roads 
during the Wednesday morning commute in the higher elevations. Bulk 
of the precipitation then moves out by sunrise for most, mid morning 
for northeast MA.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder with rain later in the week but no flooding 
expected.

Confidence is increasing on pattern change to milder weather later 
this week as subtropical ridge builds off southeast U.S coast and 
northern stream short wave closes off as it digs into Great Lakes. 
This sets up milder and increasingly moist SW flow aloft with rain 
likely sometime in Friday to Saturday timeframe as low pressure 
tracks through eastern Great Lakes into southern Canada. At this 
point odds do not favor excessive rainfall as system is progressive 
and none of the moisture or wind anomalies are off the charts, but 
certainly we should see a soaking rainfall with around 0.50" of rain 
being favored in ensemble probabilities. Snowmelt will also add some 
runoff but right now ensemble river forecasts only show minor rises 
at most and all well below bankfull. 

Behind this system, airmass is not terribly cold, more in the way of 
seasonable temperatures for early next week. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

VFR lowers to MVFR after 19z across central/W MA and CT as 
light snow overspreads the region. Snow likely reaches eastern 
terminals around 23z. Minor accumulations of snow possible 
throughout the night. Small chance some patchy freezing drizzle 
could develop between 03-07z around PVD and SE MA.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence.

VFR, with areas of MVFR across the higher terrain and eastern 
MA during the morning. More widespread MVFR expected during the 
afternoon.

Tuesday Night... Moderate confidence.

MVFR decreasing to IFR as rain and freezing rain move in. 
Thinking FZRA will begin to impact the higher elevations and 
BDL after 00z Wed and moving around before the morning push, 
10-12z.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence 
in timing. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence 
in timing.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, FZRA likely, patchy BR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. 

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

Friday Night through Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Breezy. RA likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday night...High Confidence.

Relatively light winds and seas expected during this time.
Reduced visibility at times in light snow tonight, which should
transition to rain across the southern coastal waters after
midnight. Dry conditions expected for Tuesday with rain moving
in Tuesday night.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain, patchy fog. 

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. 

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/JWD
AVIATION...BW/McMinn/JWD
MARINE...BW/JWD