Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

54°F

11/10/2025 2:31am

Lexington Conditions: Fog, Overcast
Temperature: 54.0°F / 12.2°C
Dew Point: 52.9°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.62 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: ¼ mile
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Special Weather Statement
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 041749
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1249 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny and dry but with gusty northwest winds today. 
Winds then gradually slacken tonight, setting the stage for a 
rather chilly night. Increasing cloudiness associated with a 
strong Alberta Clipper low moves in for Wednesday. Its cold 
frontal passage Wednesday evening may bring showers as it moves
offshore, with a period of strong gusty winds for Wednesday 
night into Thursday. Brief ridging Thursday is then followed by 
another frontal system Friday. Improving conditions arrive for 
the weekend before yet another frontal wave moves through on 
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Mostly sunny, but rather gusty through sundown. Minor wind damage 
  possible from NW gusts 40-50 mph but impacts should be limited.

* Highs in the 50s, though gusty conditions make it feel quite a 
  bit cooler.

Details:

Cold front which brought a period of gusty convective showers (gusts 
35-50 mph) and thunderstorms during the pre-midnight hours has now 
moved offshore. In its wake has been increased lower-level cold and 
dry advection. Sfc ridging was building in from a broad sfc high 
over the mid-MS Valley. WNW winds have at least briefly
decreased to around 25-30 mph in gusts, with current temps in 
the mid to upper 40s in most areas. While WNW wind gusts are 
currently in a relative minimum, a deepening boundary layer due 
to the combo of full sunshine and the cold advection once the 
sun comes out should allow for a second surge in WNW gusts 
today. Mostly sunny conditions today with some intervals of 
clouds in western New England, but it will turn quite gusty.

Per collab with NWS Albany, we ended up expanding the wind 
advisory issued yesterday to include all of Southern New 
England. Looking at BUFKIT point momentum transfer progs, we 
should mix to at least 850 mb, although the gusts at the top of 
the mixed layer are around 45-50 kt, which tend to decrease as 
we move into the afternoon. Thinking WNW gusts today clock in 
more commonly around 40-45 mph in most areas, with isolated 
gusts to 50 mph capable of minor wind-related damage, peaking 
during the morning to early afternoon. Gusts then stand to 
decrease later today as the speeds at top of the mixed layer 
decrease and the earlier sundown around 430 PM steadily reduces 
the mixing depth. Since the gusts may end up being generally 
similar in most areas, felt it just made more sense from a 
messaging standpoint to include all of Southern New England, 
though pending trends it certainly could be cancelled before its 
scheduled expiration. 

Aside from it being a pretty gusty day, sun will offset the 
cold air advection with seasonable highs in the 50s, but will 
feel quite a bit cooler given the winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
315 AM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Clear and chilly tonight with gradually decreasing winds. 

* Mostly sunny to start Wed, but with increasing clouds and 
  developing SW breezes. Highs in the 50s, perhaps near 60 south 
  coast.

Details: 

Tonight: 

High pressure over the mid-MS Valley shifts southward into the 
Carolinas tonight as sfc ridge associated with it continues to build 
into Southern New England. Mostly clear skies should result and our 
airmass begins to modify as the 925-850 mb thermal trough lifts 
offshore. But the uncertainty instead lies in how quickly do 
sustained west winds subside, which would affect how low 
temperatures get tonight in what's otherwise a good radiational 
cooling night. Could have some sub-freezing lows in the more 
outlying areas in western MA/CT, but in RI/eastern MA winds probably 
stay up just enough to support lows in the mid 30s, with upper 
30s/low 40s in the cities and across the Cape and Islands. 

Wednesday: 

Mostly clear to start, but will see increased mid and high level 
moisture in a developing strong warm advection pattern. This occurs 
ahead of a Clipper-low which is expected to energize into a sub-1000 
mb cyclone by Wed aftn as it treks into the St. Lawrence Valley (and 
even deeper by Wed night, see the long-term AFD). Although Wed ends 
up being dry, expect a variable amt of cloud cover thru the day, 
greater north and west comprising a midlevel cloud deck with lesser, 
more filtered clouds towards the south coast. Despite the variable 
cloud cover, tightening SWly gradient with shallow mixing should 
allow for breezy SW winds to develop, strongest by afternoon with 
gusts in the 25 mph range. Highs top out in the 50s, but lower-mid 
50s north where midlevel cloud cover is more likely to temper 
insolation, and in the upper 50s, perhaps near 60 near the southern 
coastline where more peeks of sun will be met by cooling influence 
of an onshore SW breeze off the water.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Changeable and active weather pattern ahead. 

* Potential for strong winds behind a clipper system Wednesday 
  night into Thursday. 

* Mostly seasonable temperatures through the week with highs mostly 
  in the 50s, occasionally dipping into the 40s

Guidance is coming into better agreement depicting a potent clipper 
system passing north of Southern New England. Main concern with this 
feature will be rapid pressure rises behind it as it pulls away and 
strengthens in the Gulf of Maine. Notably, the GFS depicts 3 hour 
pressure rises of +7mb/3hr Wednesday night into the early morning 
hours Thursday. Looking aloft, 925mb winds increase to between 45 
and 55kts, depending on the guidance source. The GFS has the 
strongest low level winds over much of the CWA while the EURO is 
more limited and has the the highest values over the Cape and 
Islands. In any case, cold advection will likely allow for deep 
mixing (up to ~850mb) and steep low level lapse rates (8-9 C/km). If 
the jet is positioned over the area then strong winds near the top 
of the mixing layer would have little trouble mixing to the surface 
Wednesday night. Higher confidence in colder temperatures Thursday 
as 850 temps plunge to -10C. These temperatures would support highs 
struggling out of the lower and mid 40s for most, add in a stiff NW 
wind, and apparent temperatures may struggle out of the 30s. 

Another frontal system pushes through Friday night, bringing another 
chance for some showers heading into the weekend. NAEFS guidance is 
indicating IVT reaching the 90th percentile of climatology over 
southern New England Friday night, lining up with elevated S flow 
with WAA (925 mb temperatures approach 10C in this period once 
again). Ensemble mean PWAT values range between 0.8" and 0.95" pre-
frontal passage; so with this elevated moisture and the approaching 
front, more showers are expected. High pressure returns once again 
to dry things out briefly heading into Sunday before anomalous 
troughing continues into early next week. Through the whole week 
into the weekend, high temperatures are expected to remain primarily 
in the 40s and 50s behind the fronts, with some spots reaching the 
low 60s towards the southern coastlines and even up into SE MA ahead 
of the cold fronts amidst WAA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update: 

Through 00z:  

VFR. WNW wind gusts 35-40 kt dropping off by 21z. 

Tonight: High confidence. 

VFR. WNW gusts to 25-30 kt Cape/Islands early diminishing and
becoming light overnight.

Wednesday: High confidence. 

VFR, with increasing mid-high clouds. Wind becoming SW 10-20 kt
in the afternoon, with gusts to 30-35 kt developing along the 
south coast and Cape/Islands by late in the day.

Wednesday night: High confidence.

VFR-MVFR cigs with brief scattered showers and possibly an
isolated t-storm during the evening, then clearing overnight.
Wind shift to WNW 03-06z with cold front passage followed by 
strong wind gusts to 50-55 kt, possibly as strong as 60 kt 
Cape/Islands. 

KBOS Terminal... High confidence. 

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/... 

Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt. 

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy. 

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* NW gale-force gusts today, slowly decreasing into tonight. 

* SW winds into SCA range / borderline gale southern waters Wed.

* Strong gale-force gusts likely Wed night.

Today and Tonight: High confidence. 

WNW gusts 35-40 kt over the waters today, with gusts decreasing
into the 25-30 kt range by midnight. Will need to downshift 
gale warnings over to SCAs. By overnight, west winds then
decrease to around 15-20 kt. Seas 7-10 ft over the outer waters
and around 2-4 ft nearshore today, which will more steadily 
decrease tonight to around 3-5 ft.

Wednesday: Moderate to high confidence. 

SW winds increase to 25-30 kt, though we could have a period of
SW gales on the southern waters late in the day. Seas 3-5 ft to
start, but then build quite a bit by the afternoon on the
southern waters to around 7-10 ft. Dry weather prevails during
the daytime hrs.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... 

Wednesday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain. 

Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. 

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. 

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain likely. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ002>004.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday 
     morning for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ003>007-
     010>024-026.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday 
     morning for MAZ002>024-026.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ002-008-009.
RI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday 
     morning for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 10 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for 
     ANZ230-233>237.
     Storm Warning from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for 
     ANZ231-232-250-251.
     Storm Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for 
     ANZ254-255.
     Storm Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for 
     ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/FT
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...KJC/Loconto
MARINE...Loconto/FT