Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 150728
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated marine section. General forecast trends remain
consistent.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like warmth continues today away from the coast while a
backdoor front brings cooler temperatures to parts of eastern
MA.
- Showers and storms possible again this afternoon and evening.
- Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in eastern MA/RI
Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms Friday.
- Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like warmth continues today away from
the coast while a backdoor front brings cooler temperatures to
parts of eastern MA.
The unseasonably warm airmass continues to sit over southern New
England today, with 925 mb temperatures ranging from 15C to as high
as 21C over CT. Generally, highs once again will likely reach
the low to mid 80s over parts of the interior, particularly
western MA into CT. For eastern MA and possibly even SE MA
though, a backdoor front is expected to move into the region
sometime this afternoon, keeping highs near the coast in the 60s
with spots on the Cape and far NE MA only in the upper 50s.
Cloud cover is also expected to be persistent closer to the
coasts, with generally partly cloudy skies further into the
interior. The greatest uncertainty with today's temperatures
lies with how far inland the backdoor front might push today.
There is a chance that more inland parts of SE MA into RI may
reach the low 80s today if the front moves in later in the
afternoon, but if it ends up being more progressive earlier in
the afternoon, highs may be capped moreso in the low 70s. The
closer to the front itself, the more uncertainty there will be
with temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms possible again this
afternoon and evening.
A weak shortwave approaches the region today as well, which
will aid in the development of more showers and thunderstorms,
particularly late afternoon and evening. Latest forecast
soundings still have 0-6 km shear values greater than 40 knots,
particularly in the RAP guidance. The latest HREF even has some
members drawing out some helicity swaths around parts of western
MA. MLCAPE values between 500-1100 J/kg around 4 PM this
evening out in western MA with the combination of the stronger
shear and very little CIN would be favorable for thunderstorm
development that could even turn severe, however, mid-level
lapse rates are quite weak. Anything that develops in the
afternoon/evening hours would likely be quite limited in
coverage before becoming more concentrated over CT, RI, and the
south coast heading into the overnight period.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in
eastern MA/RI Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms
Friday.
The unseasonably warm temperatures aloft persist heading into the
latter half of the week, and another shortwave (which appears to be
a bit more potent) approaches late Thursday night. With this
disturbance moving through, more rain showers can be expected
especially for Friday. The continued cloud cover then combined with
the showery/stormy conditions should also limit temperatures to
being more in the mid 60s to low 70s for much of the region, with
mid 70s still possible out in the CT River Valley. Low pressure to
the south of the region will also help usher in the return of
onshore flow over southern New England Saturday, which will really
moderate temperatures; highs for Saturday may only reach the mid 50s
near the immediate eastern coastline and the 60s over the interior.
925 mb temperatures Saturday fall to around 10C with this pattern.
The backdoor frontal boundary lingers in the area through this 3-day
period as well, so temperatures may change significantly depending
on how far south the front slides in Thursday-Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler
temperatures for early next week.
Following this pattern, a strong cold front pushes through southern
New England. This frontal passage may bring the risk for some
thunderstorms Sunday, especially as the much colder airmass (925 mb
temperatures down to around -5C) moves in, crashing into the much
warmer one we've been seeing. Highs in the 40s and 50s can be
expected post-frontal passage, starting off the week much cooler
and notably drier.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12z...High Confidence
VFR. W to SW winds around 10 kt through 12z this morning.
Today...High Confidence in trends.
VFR through about 16-18Z, then MVFR cigs. Sea-breeze likely at
BOS again between 15-17Z. Additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA
possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, though exact timing is
still a bit uncertain.
Tonight...High Confidence.
MVFR/IFR ceilings with SHRA and light and variable winds. Some
lingering TSRA possible through 03z.
Tomorrow...Moderate Confidence.
Starting off IFR/MVFR, then improving to VFR. Some marginal MVFR
cigs may linger with a continued low chance SHRA for much of
northern MA. Isolated TSRA further to the west cannot be ruled
out.
KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Small Craft Advisory will drop off at 8 AM as seas continue to
diminish. S winds today may occasionally gust to around 20
kt over the southern waters. Winds over the eastern waters will
be more E. Winds remain below 10 kt tonight over the eastern
waters, with the southern waters remaining below 15 kt. Seas
remain between 2-4 ft today through tomorrow. Fog may persist
this morning and possibly through the day today.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Upcoming record highs:
Wed 4/15
Boston 82 in 1896
Hartford 88 in 1941
Providence 82 in 1938
Worcester 85 in 1941
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ255-
256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Hrencecin
MARINE...Hrencecin
CLIMATE...Nocera
Meta data:
ID: 557fe410-cf94-4e35-9566-d9625450d255
Link:
https://api.weather.gov/products/557fe410-cf94-4e35-9566-d9625450d255
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX