Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

32°F

2/25/2026 11:26pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 31.8°F / -0.1°C
Dew Point: 28.9°F
Relative Humidity: 89%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.63 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.5 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231726
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1226 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the ongoing forecast for today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A powerful winter storm brings significant to extreme impacts
  to much of the region into today, with heavy snowfall, 
  damaging winds and blizzard conditions. Worst of the impacts 
  will be felt south and east of the I-95 corridor. 

- Expecting significant coastal impacts with areas of moderate
  coastal flooding during the late tonight/early Monday morning
  high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will be 
  from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands.

- Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an unsettled pattern for
  the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system may bring  
  precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has the potential to 
  bring yet another round of unsettled weather by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A powerful winter storm brings significant to  
extreme impacts to much of the region into today, with heavy 
snowfall, damaging winds and blizzard conditions. Worst of the 
impacts will be felt south and east of the I-95 corridor. 

840 AM update:

SPC mesoanalysis indicating 973 mb low just south of the
benchmark. Winds are backing more to the N and allowing colder
air to filter south and east into SE MA where temps have fallen
to 30F, and upper 20s at BOS. As the storm gets east of 70W 
this colder air will reach SE coastal MA by midday and 
eventually Cape Cod early afternoon. This is good news as snow 
character will become drier. Eventually the mesoscale band
impacting RI and SE MA will clops and move eastward by 18z 
reducing the heavy snowfall rates. 

Peak of the wind is occurring now with 55-65 mph gusts SE of 
I-95 and 65-75 mph over Cape/Islands. The core of the LLJ will
shift to SE coastal MA and Cape Cod through 18z. So while the 
worst of the wind will diminish some across RI and eastern MA by
midday, damaging gusts 65-75 mph will continue to impact 
Cape/Islands and into coastal Plymouth county into the 
afternoon. 
 730 AM update:

Mesoscale snow band starting to pivot as it becomes oriented
more NE-SW across RI and SE MA. Impressive mid level
frontogenesis producing 2-3 inches/hr snowfall rates. Expect
these snowfall rates to continue within this band across RI and
SE MA through the morning before rates start diminishing this
afternoon. Given snowfall amounts of 10-17 inches in this area
as of 12z, expecting total storm snowfall of 20-30 inches 
across RI and SE MA, and woudn't be surprised to see a few
reports exceeding 30 inches here. 

Overview: Not much change to the overall forecast. Very good 
model agreement in the 23/00Z suite, with respect to track and 
intensity, so we have high confidence on impacts across the 
region. Differences in precipitation totals have diminished, but
not completely gone away. Still not completely certain on where
the mesoscale banding will establish with duration, but 
continue to have greatest confidence it will be across RI and 
southeast MA.

Timing and snowfall amounts: Light snowfall had arrived late
last evening, but the observed heavier snowfall was lagging some
of the high resolution guidance by a couple of hours. Even the
23/00Z HREF was about 3 hours slower with its heavy snow bands
arriving over land. Since that appeared to have a good handle on
the snow band from around Montauk NY to the south coast of
RI/MA, leaned heavily on it for trying to time out the heavier
snowfall this morning.

Noted a pair of distinct bands already formed. One from eastern
Long Island to the south coast of MA/RI that appears to be
associated with deep frontogenesis in the 925-700 mb layer.
Thinking this band stays just southeast of the I-95 corridor
between Boston and Providence through mid morning, before
pivoting farther west into the late morning and afternoon. The
second band looked to be driven by a frontogentical band in the
850-700 mb layer, so not quite as intense but enough to lead to
localized enhancement of snowfall. This second band shifts east
through this afternoon as the offshore low pressure moves away
from our region. 

Still expecting 2-3" per hour snowfall rates, roughly between
5-11 AM this morning across RI and southeast MA. after that
time, still looking at snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour into this
afternoon, which should still accumulate quickly. Noted some
lightning well offshore, indicative of the rapid strengthening
the low pressure was undergoing. Not ruling out the possibility
of thundersnow, but not going to mention it in the forecast.

Snowfall tapers off from west to east this afternoon into this
evening. The significantly accumulating snowfall should be off
the coast by about 7 PM, although some lighter snow could 
linger as late as about 10 PM.

Impacts: We can't stress this enough, but this storm will likely 
bring extreme to destructive impacts south and east of the I-95 
corridor, especially SE MA and Cape Cod due to the combination 
of heavy wet snow and damaging wind gusts. Heavy wet snowfall 
amounts up to 2 ft with damaging winds presents a serious 
concern for tree damage and power outages. Temperatures across 
SE MA will be around 32F during the brunt of the heavy snow, 
then will begin to fall into the 20s during this afternoon. 

Farther north and west into central and NE MA and western 
MA/CT, temperatures will be in the 20s for this entire event so 
the snow will be of a drier consistency, which will help to 
mitigate these impacts somewhat. These areas could still see 
some power outages but on a much lesser scale than what is 
experienced south and east of I-95. In terms of travel, it will 
be near impossible during the period of heaviest snow this
morning with the heavy snowfall rates and whiteouts and as 
such travel is highly discouraged. 

Damaging wind: Wind will also be a serious concern, especially
along and south and east of I-95 corridor. A 65 to 75 kt low
level jet lifts north across the coastal plain today before
pivoting across SE MA and Cape/Islands. We've seen stronger 
such jets, but what is different with this event is we have a 
favorable thermodynamic environment to promote efficient mixing. 
As such, soundings support hurricane force gusts to 70-80 mph 
for the outer Cape and Nantucket, 55-65 mph southern RI and SE 
MA and 40-50 mph for the interior north and west of I-95. These 
winds alone will be strong enough alone for tree damage and 
power outages south and east of I-95, not even considering the 
impacts from heavy wet snow. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Expecting significant coastal impacts with areas
moderate coastal flooding during the late tonight/early Monday
morning high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will 
be from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands.

A storm surge of 2-3' at the time of high tide early this
morning (2AM-5AM) will likely yield moderate coastal flooding
from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands.
Therefore, a Coastal Flood Warning continues for this portion 
of the coastline. Farther northward from Boston to the NH 
border, higher confidence in minor flooding as the greatest 
surge and highest tides will be several hours removed. 
Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect.

The greatest storm surge (up to 4 ft) appears to occur during
low tide Monday (9-10AM). However, there could be enough storm
surge for minor coastal flooding during the late day high tide
(3-6PM). Although, given the astro tide is lower and winds will 
be more northerly, only expecting minor flooding. Nonetheless, a  
Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the afternoon high 
tide to account for any remaining excess water as well as 
uncertainty in the timing of decreasing winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an
unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper 
system may bring precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has
the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled weather by 
Friday. 

After lows in the teens and single digits Tuesday night, a
clipper system emerges from the Great Lakes region Wednesday. A 
trailing warm front ahead of it brings a chance for some more
wintry precipitation with the highest probs of accumulations in 
the interior. Elsewhere across the coastal plain thermal
profiles appear to be marginal with surface temps warming into
the mid and upper 30s. NBM has the highest probability for 1
inch of snow or greater snowfall totals in the Worcester Hills
and Berkshires. Snow may accumulate at lower elevations if the 
timing of the front but expecting temperatures to quickly warm 
into middle and upper 30s by the afternoon. 

Temperatures will have quite a significant diurnal variation
Tuesday night through Wednesday with lows falling well below
freezing and highs warming into the upper 30s. These warmer
daytime temperatures will result in melting and refreezing of
any melted snow, leading to slick conditions on untreated
walkways. 

Ensemble guidance is hinting at impacts from another area of low
pressure Thursday night into Friday. Details on the exact track 
and strength are highly uncertain at this time. That being said,
ensemble guidance has shown the possibility of a track north and 
west of our CWA which result in more of the way of mixed
precipitation. Again, we are nearly 6 days away from this system 
so exact details will be resolved in future forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAFs: Moderate confidence (60%). Timing of improvement may
be +/- 1-2 hours off.

Slow improvement through the evening as bands of heavy snow
gradually push offshore. Strong winds will continue to reduce
visibilities in BLSN even though snowfall rates will decrease,
but that should subside overnight as well. VFR Tue with
diminishing NW winds backing to W in afternoon. 

Fast moving system should bring -SN later Tue night with MVFR. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of
improvement may be 1-2 hours too fast. Also some uncertainty on
how much BLSN will reduce visibility through early tonight.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Fairly confident on
timing of improvement but less certain on how much BLSN will 
reduce visibility through early tonight.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SN 
likely, chance RA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN, slight chance RA.

Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. RA likely, chance
SN.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, chance
SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Very dangerous and life threatening storm for mariners through
today. Storm Warnings are in effect. We expect wind gusts 55-65
kt peaking this morning into this afternoon. A few hurricane 
force gusts are likely. Winds will begin to diminish from the 
peak of the storm from late afternoon through this evening and 
drop below gale force late tonight. Seas peaking at 15-25 ft
this afternoon and evening, with the highest seas over the
eastern MA outer waters. Near zero vsby at times in heavy snow
this morning, possibly briefly changing to rain east of Chatham
to Nantucket.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Monday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
55 kt. Rough seas up to 24 ft. Chance of snow. 

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of snow. 

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain, chance of snow. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain, slight chance of snow. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Rain likely, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance
of rain. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ004>007-009>024-
     026.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002-003-008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for MAZ019-
     022>024.
RI...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/KJC/FT
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...Belk/FT