Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

52°F

10/11/2026 10:50pm

Lexington Conditions: Heavy rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 51.6°F / 10.9°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.93 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 3 miles
Rain Today: 1.36 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 090612
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
212 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes to the forecast. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, quiet, and dry weather prevails through the first half
  of Sunday. Expect Highs in the 60s with a chilly start to 
  Saturday morning, especially in the typical cold spots. 

- The next quick moving round of rain comes Sunday afternoon and 
evening, continuing overnight and exiting by Monday morning. 

- Quick round of rain around mid week, then dry weather returns by 
Thursday. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool, quiet, and dry weather prevails through the 
first half of Sunday. Expect Highs in the 60s with a chilly start to 
Saturday morning, especially in the typical cold spots. 

A broad mid level trough slowly traverses overhead Friday as high 
pressure ridging approaches from the west. This places SNE beneath a 
NW 30-35 kt LLJ; with good mixing (bufkit showing to near 850mb) 
expecting a gusty day today, much like Thursday. Otherwise, 
beautiful, mostly sunny weather expected with highs in the mid 60s 
and a mix of diurnal clouds. High pressure continues to expand and 
move east, directly overhead by Saturday afternoon giving a very 
nice start to the holiday weekend with sun, light winds, and highs 
in the 60s. Something to watch will be how quickly that pressure 
gradient weakens because light/calm winds overnight would allow for 
efficient radiational cooling. Thus, leaned on MOS guidance for 
Saturday morning low temperatures. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next quick moving round of rain comes Sunday 
afternoon and evening, continuing overnight and exiting by Monday 
morning. 

The main change from 24 hours ago is both a slightly quicker arrival 
and exit of the rain. Guidance is in agreement that the moisture 
left over from what used to be Hurricane Isaias will be pulled east 
by a northern stream trough and quickly ushered through the mid 
Atlantic and offshore. There is less agreement as to exactly how far 
north the precip shield is, but continuing to expect southern New 
England to be well within the area that will see rain. One one hand, 
parts of the area (especially west) likely have to deal with rain 
showers Sunday afternoon/evening. 8PM Sunday ensemble guidance 
indicates a 80-90% chance of at least 0.01" rain for western MA/CT, 
but only 40-50% for far eastern MA. On the other hand, by Monday 
morning there's a good agreement the rain has exited east so it 
should be a mostly overnight event. On the whole this looks to be a 
fairly typical rainfall producing system for the region without 
hazards from flooding or damaging winds. Guidance generally paints a 
picture of a half inch for northern MA to 1+" along the south shore 
in closer proximity to the better forcing and moisture. While EPS 
ensemble probabilities of >1" of rain have increased to max 40-50% 
along the immediate south coast, GEFS probs put the odds at 
essentially NIL; needless to say, uncertainty remains on who will 
see the most rain and how much. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Quick round of rain around mid week, then dry 
weather returns by Thursday.  

A break in the rain comes Monday into Tuesday under brief high 
pressure ridging before another frontal system moves through 
bringing a round of wet weather. Confidence in any timing or 
placement details is low and will depend on how this holiday 
weekend's system plays out but unsettled weather looks possible 
around late Tuesday or Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions continue through Saturday. W wind 10-15 kts 
gusting to 20 to 30 kts Friday through the afternoon. Diurnal
cloud deck around 045 possible. Winds light and variable on
Saturday. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA.

Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. 

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday: High confidence.

W winds will increase through the morning, peaking in the afternoon. 
Expecting sustained winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25kts though some 
gusts 25-30 kt are possible. Seas around 4 ft or less Friday for all 
waters, with good visibility expected. High pressure overhead 
Saturday leads to seas 2 ft or less with N winds 5-10 kts. 

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Columbus Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Chance of rain showers. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW