Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

53°F

10/11/2026 7:41pm

Lexington Conditions: Heavy rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 52.9°F / 11.6°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 30.08 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 3 miles
Rain Today: 0.46 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 101752
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
152 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Potential for rain to last a bit longer 
Monday morning, especially south coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool start Saturday followed by a nice day with a mix of clouds and 
 sun. 

- Rain arrives Sunday, likely exiting by Monday morning but there 
 remains uncertainty on how quickly rain clears.  

- Quick round of rain around Tuesday/Tuesday night, then dry
 weather returns Wed-Thu

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool start Saturday followed by a nice day with a 
mix of clouds and sun. 

Off too a cool start, especially where winds have become calm 
allowing for better radiational cooling; many locations have dropped 
into the low 40s while the warmer urban centers remain in the mid to 
upper 50s. It will be a gradual warm-up with sunrise as high 
pressure eventually becomes centered overhead providing a pleasant 
Fall day. Mostly sunny skies will be filtered by high cirrus 
streaming north ahead of an approaching weather system. Expect highs 
to reach into the mid 60s. Trended lows toward MOS guidance a bit 
Saturday night as winds will be calm, though high clouds will limit 
radiational cooling if they're widespread enough. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain arrives Sunday, likely exiting by Monday 
morning but there remains uncertainty on how quickly rain clears.  

The main focus for the holiday weekend weather-wise is generally the 
24 hour period from 12pm Sunday to 12pm Monday. This, as a surge of 
moisture makes its way north, the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. 
After lifting north up the MS Valley it will be pulled east by a 
northern stream trough and move over Southern New England, 
strengthening as it exits the Mid-Atlantic coast and passes near the 
40/70 benchmark. This plume of anomalous moisture (PWATs approaching 
2 inches are 2-3 SD above normal) will interact with good dynamics 
to squeeze out a good 0.5 (north) to 1 (south) inches of rain in 
this time period. Some locations could see closer to 1.5" mainly 
along the south coast where the core of a 40-50kt LLJ will move 
overhead. Could also see a maxima on the slopes of the 
Berkshires/Worcester Hills where orographics could help depending on 
the exact track of the low. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest 
low probabilities of 1+" rainfall totals outside of the south coast 
where probabilities are in the 40-50% range. The short duration and 
manageable totals do not suggest that we'd be concerned with flood 
threat. The greatest uncertainty continue to be exactly when Sunday 
afternoon the rain arrives and how quickly it exits Monday. Of late, 
odds are increasing slightly that showers could linger Monday 
morning, drying by the afternoon. We'll know more as we get into the 
hi-resolution guidance over the next 24 hours. Fortunately, the bulk 
of the aforementioned LLJ should be kept aloft by inverted 
atmospheric profiles so we are not expecting damaging winds with 
this system at this time. Small Craft Advisories will likely be 
needed on the waters for gusts 25-30 kts. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Quick round of rain around Tuesday/Tuesday night, 
then dry weather returns Wed-Thu  

It's but a brief respite from the rain on Monday as the mid level 
ridging following Sunday night's system will quickly be ushered out 
as another shortwave swings through on Tuesday with PWATs quickly 
back up to 1.75". As the surface low passes near or just to our 
north generating a 35-45 kt 850mb LLJ resulting in breezy and wet 
weather around Tuesday or Tuesday night. High pressure returns 
Wednesday into Thursday ushering in a quiet and seasonable stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z update...

Today and Tonight: High confidence. 

VFR. NW/NNW winds for much of day at 6-10 kts. Winds shift to 
the NE, then around to the ESE/SE after 20Z. Winds turn more 
S/SSW into Sunday after 03Z while winds stay SE for the 
Cape/Island terminals less than 8 kts.

Sunday and Sunday Night: High confidence. 

VFR. S/SE winds 5-10 kts with RA arriving from west to east 
generally between 16Z-20Z. MVFR ceilings and -SHRA overspread 
the region from west to east 21z-24z. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. 

Monday Night: VFR. 

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday Night: High confidence.

Winds 10-15 kt today become light northeasterly late this 
evening into tonight as high pressure approaches. Seas 3 ft or 
less all waters. Sunday winds increase again ahead of 
approaching low pressure, S/SW 10-15 kts gusting 15-20 kts. Seas
begin to build late Sunday evening into the night. SCA's will 
likely be issued with future shifts.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Columbus Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Chance of rain showers. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers. 

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight
chance of thunderstorms. 

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. 

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...BW