Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

37°F

1/11/2026 11:31am

Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 37.2°F / 2.9°C
Dew Point: 36.1°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.65 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.07 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 100723
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
223 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant forecast changes. A Winter Weather Advisory has been 
issued for the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills due to the 
threat of freezing rain. Confidence increasing in a period of
gusty NW winds of 35 to 50 mph Sunday night into early Monday. 
Wind Advisories remain possible for the high terrain.  


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain arrives late this afternoon, areas of 
  freezing rain for locations at or above 1,000 feet in northern
  and western Massachusetts. Becoming dry and breezy on Sunday.

- Becoming windy & turning colder Sun night into Mon with a
  period of NW wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph possible later Sun 
  night. Low risk for a brief snow squall too.

- Mainly dry conditions early next week, trending more 
  unsettled by mid-week with periodic showers and a potential 
  coastal system for Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain arrives late this afternoon, areas 
of freezing rain for locations at or above 1,000 feet in northern 
and western Massachusetts. Becoming dry and breezy on Sunday. 

With a quasi-stationary front south of New England today and an area 
of high pressure to the north, much of the daylight hours remain dry 
and somewhat mild in the low to mid-40s. The sub-tropical ridge over 
the southeast CONUS shifts NE with an robust S/SW low-level jet 
shifting the front back north late this afternoon. Riding along this 
front is a developing area of low pressure, adding to the assent 
needed to ring out these above normal PWATs. PWATs between 1.0" and 
1.2" across the coastal plain, with lower values across the interior 
at 0.8". Still, plenty of moisture to be had as this front pushes 
north. Rain totals are generally in the range of 0.3" and 0.5" N and 
W of I-95, areas S and E are between 0.6" and 1.0", with locally 
higher amounts of 1.5" mainly across the outer Cape and Islands. 

While majority of the region has rain, interior areas have freezing 
rain AOA 1,000 feet. Although surface temperatures may initially be 
marginally above freezing, forecast wet bulb temperatures near 0C 
indicate evaporative cooling will quickly lower surface temperatures 
to freezing once precipitation begins. Given a well defined warmnose 
between 900mb and 700mb, and only a shallow subfreezing layer near 
the surface, freezing rain appear more likely than sleet. 

A Winter Weather Advisory is issues for two areas across our region. 
First, eastern slopes of the Berkshires, with ice accumulations 
between 0.1" and 0.2". Second area, northern Worcester Hills, where 
less ice accumulation is anticipated, between 0.01" and 0.1". Both 
of these areas are under an advisory between 5 PM today and 10 AM 
Sunday. Plan on slippery road conditions. Drying late Sunday morning 
into Sunday afternoon as low PWATs advect into the region. Will 
notice a shift in the wind due to the surface low passing, going 
from E on Saturday, to W on Sunday. Gusts begin to increase in the 
late afternoon, becoming strong overnight. Will have to watch out 
for a few CAA snow showers or a snow squall. More on that in the 
next key message.  

KEY MESSAGE 2...Becoming windy & turning colder Sun night into
Mon with a period of NW wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph possible 
later Sun night. Low risk for a brief snow squall too.

Saturday's low pressure system will be exited over the Canadian 
Maritimes by Sunday night continuing to deepen while a cold front 
moves through southern New England. This will result in a fairly 
tight pressure gradient developing across the region. Strong CAA 
should help with the mixing down of the higher gusts aloft 
supporting gusty northwest winds Sunday night into Monday. The LLJ 
in place will be moderate in magnitude around 40-50 kts. Model 
soundings reinforce the gust potential showing a deep well-mixed 
layer. All appears supportive of gusts 35-45 mph with the higher 
gusts in that range over the high terrain and Cape/Islands. Can't 
rule out a gust to 50 mph for the Berkshires which is in the 75th 
percentile of the NBM.  With all that said, it is possible we 
briefly reach Wind Advisory criteria in areas with the highest 
probabilities for the Berkshires, Worcester Hill, and Cape/Islands. 
Confidence is increasing in the need for a short-lived advisory for 
at least the Berkshires. Stay tuned for updates on any wind 
headlines. The strongest gusts look to be most likely in the Sunday 
night to early Monday timeframe. 

We still continue to have a low risk for a weak snow squall or two 
Sunday night with the cold frontal passage and arrival of the gusty 
winds. Steepening lapse rates and residual mid-moisture in place 
should create a sufficient environment, although we are lacking in 
the surface moisture which is why coverage of any squally showers 
will likely be low. This potential is echoed by some low values in 
the snow squall parameter model fields. 

Temperatures overnight drop into the 20s for most places Sunday 
night and with the added strong winds will bring wind chills into 
the single digits and teens. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry conditions early next week, trending
more unsettled by mid-week with periodic showers and a 
potential coastal system for Friday.

Looking ahead to next week, the pattern aloft stays on the active 
side with a series of shortwave troughs/disturbances moving through 
the flow in the eastern portion of the CONUS. A weak shortwave drops 
south from the Great Lakes late Monday; however, it will be fairly 
moisture starved resulting in mainly dry conditions. A brief period 
of warming is likely Tuesday/Wednesday as a mid-level ridge moves 
through. A few scattered rain/snow showers are possible late Tuesday 
into early Wednesday with as a piece of weak shortwave energy moves 
through. 

There is general agreement among ensemble guidance with the upper 
pattern transitioning to deep troughing across the northeast late 
week. This should bring a return to colder temperatures 
(around/slightly below normal) starting Thursday. Still quite a ways 
out, but we are watching the potential for a coastal system for 
Friday. There is large amount of spread among ensemble 
members/solutions in the track of the surface low pressure. A chunk 
of solutions favors a well offshore track; however, there are 
solutions that also show a track closer to shore which would yield a 
mix precip and/or snow depending on the temperatures/exact track. As 
we head into next week, deterministic/ensemble guidance should come 
into better agreement in the details. Just something to watch for 
now.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

TAF Update: 06z

Through 12z... Moderate confidence in duration of gusts.

MVFR to IFR for far southeast MA, Cape Cod, Islands, and coastal RI 
through 08z/10z. Else where VFR. Winds are periodically gusty from 
the W, speeds 8-12 knots, gusting 20 to 25 knots, coastal areas are 
stronger speeds 15-20 knots, gusting 30 to 35 knots. 

Today... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. 

Dry with VFR conditions to start. Light NW wind becomes ENE with 
speeds around 3 to 8 knots. A front moves north, wind direction 
becomes E 5 to 10 knots. Ceilings lower to MVFR from south to north 
between 20z and 00z, this coincides with widespread rainfall. 

Tonight... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. 

Periods of RA throughout the night. MVFR ceilings lower to IFR/LIFR 
after 03z/05z and remain the rest of the period. Visibilities lower 
between 1SM and 3SM. E wind less than 10 knots through 06z, wind 
shifts to the NNW there after with wind speeds less than 5 knots. 

Sunday... Moderate confidence. 

A few rain and high-elevation snow showers between 12z and 18z. IFR 
ceilings starting off, improving to VFR (west to east) between 15z 
and 18z, Cape Cod and Islands could remain MVFR through the late 
afternoon, not improving until 21z-00z. Increasing W wind 10 to 15 
knots, gusting 20-25 knots. 

KBOS Terminal... Moderate Confidence. 

MVFR, improving to a low-end VFR between 06z-09z. SW gusts diminish 
by 10z-12z, becoming W around 10 knots. Conditions deteriorate as a 
front moves north with lowering ceilings and visibilities, along 
with widespread rain after 23z-02z.

KBDL Terminal... Moderate Confidence.

IFR to MVFR, improving to a low-end VFR between 03z-06z. S winds 
becoming WNW around 10 knots by 12z. Conditions deteriorate as a 
front moves north with lowering ceilings and visibilities, along 
with widespread rain after 20z-23z.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. 

Monday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. 

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. 

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday... High confidence. 

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary sits south of the islands this 
morning, but will shift north late morning into the afternoon. NE 
wind early, less than 10 knots, then E late afternoon 10 to 15 
knots, gusts 18 to 22 knots.  Rain becomes widespread from south to 
north, starting 2 PM to 4 PM across the southern waters and 6 PM to 
8 PM across the eastern waters. Rain ends early Sunday, wind shifts 
to the NNW then W by Sunday afternoon, with gusts 20 to 25 knots. 
Strong winds anticipated overnight, Gale Watch in effect for all 
waters Sunday night though Monday morning.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance
of snow. 

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Areas of rough seas. 

Monday Night through Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST 
     Sunday for MAZ002-004-008-009-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for 
     ANZ230>237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-
     254>256.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for 
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch