Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

53°F

10/11/2026 7:43pm

Lexington Conditions: Heavy rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 52.9°F / 11.6°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 30.08 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 2 miles
Rain Today: 0.48 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 080614
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
214 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes to the forecast. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry weather prevails through Sunday with the exception
  of a few scattered showers Thursday. Highs consistently in 
  the 60s after a warmer Thursday. Saturday morning may be 
  frosty in spots. 

- The next quick moving round of rain comes Sunday evening and
  overnight, exiting sometime on Monday though confidence in
  exact timing is low. Not expecting any flooding or damaging
  winds at this time. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry weather prevails through Sunday with the 
exception of a few scattered showers Thursday. Highs consistently 
in the 60s after a warmer Thursday. Saturday morning may be frosty 
in spots. 

High pressure dominates during this stretch of weather once we get 
past today as a pre-frontal trough and a moisture starved surface 
cold front coming swinging through this morning. Just enough 
moisture to squeeze out some isolated showers, mainly in the early 
morning (west) and late morning/early afternoon (east). Kept only a 
slight chance of showers at most, though many will stay dry. After a 
period of increased cloudcover with the frontal passage clear skies 
return in the afternoon and overnight. As sprawling high pressure 
expands overhead this will lead to cool and dry weather through much 
of if not all of Sunday. Cool NW flow around the high causes 925mb 
temps to drop from 15C today to 8-10C Fri/Sat leading high temps to 
struggle to escape the low to mid 60s. The airmass moderates Sunday 
as return flow kicks in behind the exiting high. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next quick moving round of rain comes Sunday 
evening and overnight, exiting sometime on Monday though confidence 
in exact timing is low. Not expecting any flooding or damaging winds 
at this time. 

Confidence remains moderate to high that our next rain event arrives 
late Sunday/Sunday night and is quite progressive as the remnants of 
Tropical Storm Isaias are swept up in a northern stream trough. This 
ushers it through rather quickly before deepening over the Gulf of 
Maine. While moisture parameters are good, at least over southern 
parts of the area, the progressive nature of the system will limit 
rainfall amounts and mitigate flooding issues. On the whole this 
looks to be a fairly typical rain maker for the region without 
hazards from flooding or damaging winds. Guidance generally paints a 
picture of a quarter inch or less for northern MA to 1.25" along the 
south shore in closer proximity to the better forcing and moisture. 
Ensemble probabilities of >1" of rain are essentially NIL except for 
10-20% along the immediate south coast. 


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions continue through Friday. S winds of 5-15 knots 
early this morning with some 20+ knot gusts at times. A few 
brief passing showers possible mainly Thu morning...but this 
would be short- lived. WSW wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots expected
Thu...but these should diminish and become W by Thu night. VFR
Friday with W wind 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. 

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Friday...High confidence.

A SW low level jet ahead of an approaching cold front will result in 
SW wind gusts of 20-25 knots early this morning and persisting into 
Thu afternoon. Small craft advisories are in effect for most of our 
waters. Wind gusts should drop below small craft thresholds later 
Thu and especially Thu night. Friday high pressure will be 
approaching leading to W winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. 

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers. 

Columbus Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for 
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW