Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

34°F

2/25/2026 8:30pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 34.0°F / 1.1°C
Dew Point: 30.2°F
Relative Humidity: 86%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 3 mph
Barometer: 29.63 in Rising Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.5 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 251734
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1234 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No changes to the snowfall forecast this morning. Guidance
continues to trend the coastal low Thursday night further
offshore.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick burst of snow this morning will bring 1-3 inches of 
  snow

- Near normal temperatures Thursday and Friday with a weak 
  coastal storm continuing to trend further offshore.

- Potential for another Arctic outbreak late in the weekend 
  into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1...A quick burst of snow this morning will bring 
1-3 inches of snow

A weak shortwave and clipper low-pressure system moves through the 
region this morning, bringing a quick burst of snow. A southerly LLJ 
will bring modest WAA and lift into the snow growth region this 
morning. Moisture, however, is limited, with PWATS only around 0.4 
to 0.5 inches, leading to QPF under a quarter of an inch across the 
region.  The area that could see higher QPF is along the immediate 
south coast, where southward winds may advect higher moisture 
content onshore.  Guidance remained consistent overnight, bringing a 
fairly widespread 1-3 inches of snow across the region, except for 
the Cape and Islands, where temperatures will likely turn snow to 
rain later this morning.  Snow will fall over a relatively short 
period, likely in a 3-hour or less period, which will lead to some 
more intense snow rates in the 0.5 to 1 inch per hour range. These 
rates are high enough to make travel conditions hazardous this 
morning.  Snow will move in from west to east this morning between 5 
am and 8 am, and move out to sea between 11 am and 2 pm.  Clouds are 
unlikely to clear after the snow moves offshore, but southerly winds 
and WAA will help temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 30s 
after a chilly start to the day. There could be a round of widely 
scattered rain/snow showers this evening as a secondary shortwave 
and subtle cold front moves through.

Key Message 2...Near normal temperatures Thursday and Friday 
with a weak coastal storm continuing to trend further offshore.

The Northeast remains in a general troughing pattern through the end 
of the week, which will keep temperatures near normal for this time 
of year, near 40F.  Less windy and fewer clouds both Thursday and 
Friday with partial sunshine. Guidance continues to trend the 
coastal storm offshore on Thursday night, but a coating to 2 inches 
remains possible for the Cape and Islands.  A moisture-starved warm 
front arrives early Saturday morning, bringing temperatures into the 
mid to upper 40s away from the high terrain and coasts.

Key Message 3...Potential for another Arctic outbreak late in the weekend 
into early next week

Some early indications that the polar vortex makes another trip
down into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast by the end of 
the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will likely 
be well below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the 
single digits to low teens. The one factor that will keep this 
arctic outbreak from becoming dangerously cold is that we are 
only about a month away from the spring equinox, meaning the sun
angle will help keep temps warmer then previous arctic 
outbreaks in January. Precipitation remains highly uncertain at 
this range with enormous spread in both deterministic and 
ensemble guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon through Thursday night...High confidence in
trends with moderate confidence in timing.

MVFR ceilings may linger into the late afternoon hours...But 
most locations improve to VFR conditions this evening outside 
of any brief precipitation in the 02z to 08z window with a cold
frontal passage. A line of snow showers with a few heavier snow
squalls possible will drop into northwest MA after 02z. If the 
activity survives it may approach the I-95 corridor in the 05z 
to 07z window and quickly exit the coast. This activity will 
result in briefly lower cigs/vsbys. Otherwise...VFR conditions 
behind this activity right through Thu night. Southwest wind 
gusts of 15 to 25 knots diminish early this evening but expect
a period of LLWS ahead of an approaching cold front. 
Otherwise...west winds 7 to 13 knots on Thu. Winds then become 
light NW Thu night and should decouple in the typical spots. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate 
confidence in timing.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate 
confidence in timing.


Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...

Friday: VFR. 

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all waters this
morning for a period of SW gusts to 25-30 kt as a low level jet
moves across the waters. Winds will diminish Wed evening but 
5-8 ft seas will linger over southern waters through Wed night. 
Vsbys lower this morning in a period of snow and rain.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain, slight chance of freezing rain, slight chance
of snow. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. 

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. 

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-
     236-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...KP