Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222337
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
737 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Spotty light showers/drizzle tonight but much of the time it
will be dry. More humid Sun with a few showers & t-storms
possible especially near & west of the CT River Valley where
an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two is possible.
- Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures next week. Rain
chances return Thursday/Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Spotty light showers/drizzle tonight but much
of the time it will be dry. More humid Sun with a few showers &
t-storms possible especially near & west of the CT River Valley
where an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two is possible.
Weak offshore low pressure will continue to result in
moist/light NE low level flow into tonight. The result will be
rather cloudy skies tonight with just some spotty light
showers/drizzle at times...but this activity will be quite light
with much of the time featuring dry weather. Some shortwave
energy may allow for a few elevated heavier showers and perhaps
a couple t-storms to develop near the southeast New England
coast toward daybreak...mainly near the Cape and Islands. Some
of the earlier model guidance has this activity further
west...but latest indicating that the main risk for this will be
towards the Cape and Islands closer to the shortwave energy.
Overnight low temps will only drop into the lower to middle 60s
given clouds and an abundance of low level moisture. Areas of
fog will be possible too...especially near the coast and in the
Worcester Hills.
Again...we will need to watch for a few showers and isolated t-
storms near the Cape and Islands early Sun morning.
Otherwise...the main concern for a few showers and thunderstorms
will be Sun afternoon/early evening given diurnal instability
and shortwave energy to our west. The bulk of the height
falls/forcing will be to our west. Therefore...greatest risk for
a few showers and thunderstorms will be near and west of the CT
River Valley Sun afternoon/early evening. Instability will be
limited by a lot of cloud cover...but effective shear of 40+
knots will result in the low risk for an isolated strong to
severe severe thunderstorm or two. Main severe weather risk
would be a very localized damaging wind gusts and brief
torrential rainfall. Greatest risk for this would near and west
of the CT River Valley. That being said...much of the day will
feature dry weather...but with a bit more humidity compared to
this afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures
next week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday.
A post-frontal air mass will usher in drier conditions and
warmer temperatures with westerly winds Monday. As skies
gradually clear from the dreary weekend, dewpoints will begin to
drop slightly... into the upper 50s as opposed to the low to
mid 60s we've been seeing. High pressure begins to slowly build
Tuesday into Wednesday, prolonging the clear skies, drier
weather, and warmer temperatures through the middle of the week.
Chances for rain showers return Thursday and Friday as a low
pressure system develops over the Great Lakes and meanders east
through southern Ontario. Some uncertainty regarding the onset
of the showers as there's little consistency in the global
ensembles on the actual placement of the low as it tracks
through Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Through tonight...Moderate confidence.
MVFR conditions continue to deteriorate to generally IFR with
localized LIFR cigs/vsbys tonight. A few spotty showers/light
drizzle and fog patches are possible at times too. Perhaps a few
heavier showers and isolated t-storms graze areas towards the
Cape and Islands toward daybreak Sun, although latest guidance
has trended those further north and west into the I-95 corridor
and closer to BOS. Calm/light NE winds.
Sunday and Sunday night...Moderate confidence.
Mainly IFR with localized LIFR conditions Sun morning should
improve to mainly MVFR-VFR levels by Sun afternoon/night. A few
showers and t-storms are possible too with the greatest risk
near and west of the CT River Valley during the afternoon/early
evening. Light ENE gradually becoming light S by Sun night.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Sunday night...High confidence.
A wave of low pressure across the waters will be lifting into
the Canadian Maritimes tonight. The pressure gradient though
will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft
advisory thresholds through Sunday night. Areas of fog will
reduce visibilities for mariners at times especially later
tonight into Sun morning.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...Frank/McMinn
Meta data:
ID: 25dec7ab-73a9-4baf-8429-55dfda0307b2
Link:
https://api.weather.gov/products/25dec7ab-73a9-4baf-8429-55dfda0307b2
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX