Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

79°F

7/12/2026 2:29pm

Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 79.3°F / 26.3°C
Dew Point: 59.0°F
Relative Humidity: 50%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 1 mph
Barometer: 30.11 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 070516
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
116 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of heavy rain and a few embedded t-storms today into
  Tuesday across parts of CT, RI, and SE MA. Rain continues to
  overspread the region through tonight, but will be lighter
  towards the NH border.

- Mainly dry mid-week as higher temperatures and humidity
  return. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday,
  possibly lingering into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of heavy rain and a few embedded t-storms 
today into Tuesday across parts of CT, RI, and SE MA. Rain continues 
to overspread the region through tonight, but will be lighter 
towards the NH border.

Rain to the south of the region is slowly moving northward towards 
southern New England, picking up a bit towards the south coast of 
CT. Drier air remains settled over much of Massachusetts north of 
the RI and CT borders, limiting the spread of rain there. High 
pressure over northern New England nosing down into the region is 
also a key factor here. Rain is not expected to really pick up until 
this evening into tonight for parts of CT, SE MA, and RI when the 
low to the south of Long Island is expected to continue pushing 
north. Up towards northern MA, rain may not start until around 
midnight.

With the approaching low, a boundary will also push northward that 
will clash with high pressure, a PWAT plume with values up to (and 
even exceeding) 2.0", and a LLJ with winds around 30 kt at 925 mb. 
This would be a main driver for widespread heavy rainfall along the 
boundary, which guidance has still struggled to find a more concrete 
solution to. Rainfall totals between 1-3" are still expected over 
much of southern New England, with lighter totals expected closer to 
the NH border. Locally higher totals between 4-6" remain a 
possibility over parts of CT, RI, and SE MA. Even with the 
spread in guidance regarding where these totals may be, a number
of models still key in on those areas as having the highest 
risk for these totals. For these reasons, a Flood Watch remains 
in effect through tomorrow afternoon for our counties in 
northern CT into RI and SE MA to the Cape.

Rainy conditions are expected to continue through much of
Tuesday -- mainly in eastern MA and RI -- as the low pressure 
continues northeastward and its associated shortwave moves east 
from the Great Lakes. The low passes the region Tuesday night 
with the upper level shortwave moving over Maine, and high 
pressure to the north continues spreading southward over 
southern New England as it departs. Showers may persist into 
Tuesday night, but these are not expected to be nearly as 
impactful as today & tonight's rainfall.  

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry mid-week as higher temperatures and 
humidity return. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday, 
possibly lingering into Saturday.

A mid-level ridge and subsequent surface low will start to build 
over the mid-Atlantic and New England regions Wednesday, bringing a 
spell of mainly dry weather through most of Thursday. 925mb 
temperatures rising to near 20C and plenty of sunshine will allow 
for surface temperatures to begin to creep up above seasonable 
norms... likely near 90 across most of southern New England 
Wednesday and Thursday. Another shortwave trough and cold front 
pushing through sometime Thursday may bring chances for showers and 
thunderstorms Friday. Depending on the timing of the FROPA, showers 
could linger into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update...

Adjusted onset time of -SHRA and MVFR/IFR ceilings forward a
couple of hours.

Today...Moderate confidence. 

Any lingering VFR conditions N of ORH deteriorate to MVFR/IFR. 
Some periods of rain could be heavy at times across parts of 
RI/SE MA. An embedded t-storm or two is possible in this same 
area as well. Periods of rain will continue today especially 
across eastern MA/RI. MVFR with localized IFR conditions will 
also continue through much of the day. Winds today from the NE 
at 8-16. Some gusts to 20-25 kt primarily over the Cape and 
Islands. 

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Rain clears out of the region tonight, though onshore winds may
keep conditions generally MVFR with areas of IFR across 
southern New England. Lower cigs more likely over eastern MA and
RI. Possible lingering -SHRA and or -DZ thru 05z for the Cape
and Islands.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Higher confidence 
in overall trends, but exact timing is less certain.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. 

Wednesday Night: VFR. 

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

Weak high pressure over eastern Canada will continue combining with 
low pressure tracking south of the waters. Resultant E wind gusts of 
20-30 kt that will track northward tonight into Tuesday will prevail 
over the waters. Winds will also end up shifting more NE tonight 
into Tuesday. These will likely continue through Tuesday night as 
well. Small Craft Advisories were extended for the northeastern 
outer waters through Tuesday night as a result.
Seas to 5 ft build over the southern waters tonight, then shift to 
the eastern waters Tuesday into Tuesday night. Pockets of 6 ft seas 
are possible closer to the northern ocean water zones.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through this afternoon for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MAZ017>022.
RI...Flood Watch through this afternoon for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     ANZ231>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235-
     237-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ255.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hrencecin/McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn/FT
MARINE...Hrencecin/McMinn