Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

34°F

2/25/2026 8:30pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 34.0°F / 1.1°C
Dew Point: 30.2°F
Relative Humidity: 86%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 3 mph
Barometer: 29.63 in Rising Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.5 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 200745
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
245 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect from 10 AM today to 
7 AM Saturday due to accumulating snow and ice, leading to
slippery road conditions.

There continues to be uncertainty with regard to the coastal 
storm late Sunday into Monday, but we are still favoring a less
impactful offshore track at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Messy day on tap with rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain
  expected. Mostly a rain event for areas southeast of I-95. 
  All locations will see a change back to snow tonight with 
  light accumulations possible. Slippery road conditions 
  expected.

- Light snow and snow showers continue Saturday with limited
  additional accumulations.

- Coastal storm late Sunday-Monday more than likely to miss or
  just brush southern New England, but too soon to rule out a 
  more widespread high impact outcome. 

- Another round of unsettled weather mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Messy day on tap with rain, snow, sleet and
freezing rain expected. Mostly a rain event for areas southeast 
of I-95. All locations will see a change back to snow tonight 
with light accumulations possible. Slippery road conditions 
expected.

Winter Weather Advisories for interior Southern New England to
just east of the I-95 corridor today into tonight.

Low pressure continues moving northeast towards the Great Lakes
spreading an area of warm front-driven precipitation over much
of the northeast CONUS England by the afternoon. Next, a
secondary area of low pressure develops somewhere S of Long
Island and moves east overnight. The trend in guidance has been 
to keep the column cooler with each run. Whereas last night's
00z output showed the mid-level warm nose making it well north of
the Mass Pike, the vast majority of tonight high- resolution
guidance shows the warm nose struggling to make it to the Mass
border. This trend appears to be driven by stronger cold
advection/cold air damming in NH/ME being moved further south by 
the departing secondary low pressure. 

Still a somewhat challenging p-type forecast under the warm
nose, but the trend has been for colder temps in this layer. In 
terms of sensible weather, a colder above 0C layer means that
areas along and north of the Mass Pike can expect a mostly snow 
and sleet event while areas further south see more in the way of
sleet and freezing rain. As the last shift aptly described it, 
"a potpourri of precipitation types". The higher confidence part
of the forecast comes after the heaviest precip Friday night as
the mid levels cool. Strengthening northerly flow means that the 
entire CWA transitions to a period of light snow in all areas
Friday night. Winter Weather Advisories continue for most of
interior Southern New England. 

Still feel the HREF has a good handle on precipitation types and
was used for weather types/changeovers. Forecast remains largely 
on track since the previous discussion. Precipitation breaks out
in far western New England after the Friday morning commute, and 
gradually spreads east-northeast into the afternoon. Areas near
and north of the Mass Pike and into the Merrimack Valley/North
Shore should remain as mostly snow for the duration of this
event, where the greatest accumulations of wet snow are forecast 
(3-5" with spot 6" amounts along the NH border). Areas along and
south of the Mass Pike southward into Northern Connecticut and
northwest Rhode Island are more likely to see a mix of precip
types, with accreting freezing rain (up to two tenths of an
inch), sleet and minor wet snow (C-3"). 

Lower snowfall totals expected in the Boston metro area due to
stiff onshore flow helping to warm highs into the upper 30s. Any 
wintry precip that falls during the day likely struggles to
accumulate. Things change somewhat quickly Friday night as
colder northerly flow drives southward Friday evening. Expect a 
transition over from wintry mix of rain/sleet over to a minor- 
accumulating but greasy light snow with a couple inches of snow 
accumulation forecast. While totals will be light (1-2 inches) 
the timing of the transition will not be ideal for the evening 
commute and will likely result in slick travel. Opted to not go 
with an advisory as confidence in snowfall and sleet totals over
2 inches is still somewhat low. 

Elsewhere, this is a mostly rain event SE of I-95 with a period
of light snow Friday night. In these areas, a coating to a half 
inch of snow is possible mainly on grassy surfaces or side
streets. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light snow and snow showers continue Saturday
with limited additional accumulations.

A leftover inverted trough continues light snow/snow shower
activity through mid morning Saturday. Moisture profiles will
become increasingly unfavorable for snow growth as the DGZ dries 
out. Because of that, accumulations if any would be limited to 
an inch or less. Highs may only range around 30-32 for northeast
MA, and in the mid to upper 30s for RI, northern CT and
southeast MA.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal storm late Sunday-Monday more than
likely to miss or just brush southern New England, but too 
soon to rule out a more widespread high impact outcome. 

Latest guidance suite has trended the consensus track of an
expected powerful low pressure closer to, but still southeast
of, the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday night into Monday. That said,
there remains significant spread in the details. Much can change
with the forecast for Sunday into Monday over the next 48 hours.

At present, thinking most impacts from snowfall and wind are 
confined to RI and southeastern MA. Strong winds also possible
elsewhere along the immediate coasts. This is mainly due to the
expected size of this low pressure, even with the more offshore
track. A closer track would mean more snow and wind impacts for
more of southern New England.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Another round of unsettled weather mid week. 

Zonal flow and a surface ridge of high pressure then move 
overhead briefly on Tuesday bringing a period of quiet weather 
into mid week, but another frontal system approaches late 
Wednesday bringing another chance for wet weather. However, 
with the trend toward warmer conditions, much of the warm
frontal precipitation likely falls as rain outside of the high
terrain areas at night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and Tonight...High Confidence in trends. Moderate 
Confidence in timing.

VFR conditions gradually lower to MVFR, primarily with the 
CIGS, by early afternoon. By midday, -RA showers begin to 
overspread the region west to east, but some uncertainty on the 
exact timing. Light snow will mix into the rain generally by 
mid afternoon for western terminals, later this evening for 
eastern terminals. It's also possibly some -FZRA may mix into 
showers later this afternoon across interior terminals as 
temperatures gradually drop below freezing, but uncertainty 
remains high on when exactly that would occur.

IFR tonight as precipitation changes back over to -SN.
Changeover should occur from NW-SE between 02-06z. Some areas of 
-PL possible as the change transition starts.

Saturday and Saturday Night...Moderate confidence.

MVFR Saturday, increasing to VFR from E to W Saturday Night.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SN.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with
areas of gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SN.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. Slight
chance SN.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the end of this week.

Increasing winds and seas this evening into Saturday as a low
pressure passes by. Winds diminish Saturday, but lingering rough
seas expected over the outer coastal waters. 

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of freezing rain, slight chance
of snow. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of snow. 

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 16 ft. Chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up
to 23 ft. Chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 22 ft. Chance of snow. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST 
     Saturday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST 
     Saturday for MAZ002>014-026.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST 
     Saturday for RIZ001-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST 
     Saturday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT