Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

53°F

10/11/2026 7:43pm

Lexington Conditions: Heavy rain, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 52.9°F / 11.6°C
Dew Point: 50.0°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 30.08 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 3 miles
Rain Today: 0.48 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 070517
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
117 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry & chilly tonight with widespread frost outside the urban 
  centers. Sunny & becoming breezy Wed with milder high temps
  reaching well into the 60s. Much milder Wed night with S-SW
  winds holding low temps mainly in the upper 40s-lower 50s. 

- Very low chance of a spot shower Thursday, otherwise a mild day.
  An early look at the holiday weekend favors dry weather, 
  though late Sunday into Monday bears watching for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry & chilly tonight with widespread frost outside 
the urban centers. Sunny & becoming breezy Wed with milder high 
temps  reaching well into the 60s. Much milder Wed night with S-SW 
winds holding low temps mainly in the upper 40s-lower 50s. 

Large high pressure builds overhead tonight. This coupled with the 
dry/cool airmass and mainly clear skies will result in good 
radiational cooling and unseasonably chilly temps tonight. Low 
temperatures should bottom out well down into the 30s in many 
locations with even some upper 20s in the normally coolest low-lying 
areas of western MA. Frost and even freeze headlines are in effect 
for much of the region outside the urban heat islands. The mild spot 
will be downtown Boston...where low temps will only drop into the 
middle 40s.

This high pressure system moves east of the region on Wed. This 
results in a return southwest flow of milder air to work back into 
the region. Sunny skies and 925T warming to around +10C by afternoon 
will allow for a very nice recovery in temps. Highs should reach the 
lower 60s in the high terrain with middle to upper 60s in most other 
locations. It will become a bit breezy Wed afternoon with Bufkit 
soundings supporting SW wind gusts of 20-25 mph...but still a very 
nice day. 

A modest southwest LLJ of 30-40 knots ahead of an approaching cold 
front Wed night will prevent surface winds from decoupling. This 
will result in a much milder low temperatures that what is on tap 
for tonight. Low temps will only drop into the upper 40s and lower 
50s in most locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Very low chance of a spot shower Thursday, otherwise 
a mild day. An early look at the holiday weekend favors dry weather, 
though late Sunday into Monday bears watching for rain.

There aren't many changes to the extended forecast. As previously 
mentioned, a vertically stacked low near Hudson Bay will send a few 
subtle shortwaves through New England Thursday. Limited moisture 
should preclude significant rainfall, though a spot shower cannot be 
ruled out. The NBM doesn't show this particularly well, but CAMs do 
indicate low-end PoPs during the day Thursday associated with a 
surface cold front. Southwest flow aloft also brings somewhat 
elevated PWATs into the region. Thus, felt it best to introduce 
Slight Chance (15-20%) PoPs. This is far from a washout, with much 
of the region and day remaining dry, though the setup does favor a 
few spot showers. Otherwise, dry weather prevails Friday through the 
start of the holiday weekend.

Forecast uncertainty increases late Sunday into Columbus Day and 
will depend largely on potential tropical development over the Bay 
of Campeche. Development of AL92 is expected, and if named would 
become Isaias. Some guidance brings remnant tropical moisture north 
into southern New England sometime late Sunday night or Monday, 
while other solutions keep it suppressed to our south as a strong 
1030 mb high extends across much of southern Canada. Plenty of time 
to watch trends, with no reason to alter outdoor plans at this point.

Temperatures remain fall-like with highs mainly in the middle to 
upper 60s, except upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday. Overnight lows are 
mostly in the upper 40s and 50s, though cooler upper 30s to middle 
40s are possible Friday night into Saturday morning. Even cooler 
conditions are possible where effective radiational cooling develops 
beneath the surface high.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions through Thursday. Calm winds tonight then shift 
to the SW Wed into Wed night with some 20-25 knot gusts expected
Wed afternoon. Gusty SW winds continue Thursday. Slight chance
SHRA. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. 

Friday: VFR. Breezy. 

Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence.

Lingering WNW small craft wind gusts quickly diminish by early 
evening as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds then shift 
to the SW Wed into Wed night. Some SW wind gusts of 20-25 knots 
expected Wed afternoon and night. Later shifts may need to consider 
some small craft advisory headlines Wed PM...but felt it was too 
marginal for a late 2nd/3rd period event. 

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

Friday Night through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ002>004.
MA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ004>006-009-
     011>013-017-018-020-021-026.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ002-003-008-
     010.
RI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/Dooley
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...Frank/Dooley