Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

54°F

11/10/2025 2:31am

Lexington Conditions: Fog, Overcast
Temperature: 54.0°F / 12.2°C
Dew Point: 52.9°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.62 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: ¼ mile
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Special Weather Statement
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 052143
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 
304 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and seasonably mild conditions today with increasing SW winds, 
then a strong cold front generates fast-moving gusty showers and 
possibly thunderstorms this evening. Behind the front strong to 
damaging wind gusts will develop late this evening and overnight 
gradually diminishing during Thursday. High pressure builds into the 
region Thursday night and moves offshore Friday. A cold front 
approaches Friday night into early Saturday with a period of 
showers, followed by dry and mild weather Saturday afternoon. 
Another cold front brings more showers to the region sometime Sunday 
into early Monday, followed by much chillier weather later Monday 
and especially by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages: 

* A scattered line of gusty showers capable of isolated wind damage 
  will move through SNE between 9 pm and midnight 

* Drying out after midnight, but with a brief period of strong to 
  damaging northwest wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph. Scattered 
  instances of downed trees and powerlines possible 

Potent mid level shortwave with attendant frontal wave will be 
tracking to the north this evening. The associated cold front 
quickly sweeps across SNE in the 03-06z time range. Strongly forced 
front will support a sct-bkn line of showers moving through the 
region this evening, roughly from 9 pm to midnight. MUCAPE and 0-3km 
CAPE is meager to non-existent in the pre- frontal environment which 
will likely result in a muted convective response. Latest CAM 
guidance is not very impressive with its depiction of convective 
showers accompanying the front and weakens activity as it approaches 
the coast. Think the thunder potential is quite low but given the 
favorable kinematic support any showers will be capable of producing 
isolated wind damage. 

Then attention turns to strong to damaging wind gust potential in 
post-frontal environment. Guidance has continued to trend a bit 
weaker with its low level wind field but we do have strong cold 
advection tonight with 850 mb temps dropping from +5 to -5C, and 
strong pressure rises behind the front. This will help to enhance 
wind potential so we should be able to mix down a good chuck of wind 
near the top of the mixed layer. Sounding data supports a brief 
period of post frontal gusts to 50-60 mph, with strongest gusts over 
Cape/Islands. The peak wind will likely be brief not lasting more 
than 3-4 hours at any given location between midnight and 6 am. We 
converted the remaining high wind watches to wind advisories for 
much of SNE, but maintained high wind warnings for the east slopes 
of the Berkshires and Cape/Islands.


Clearing skies expected after midnight but scattered showers could 
linger in the Berkshires for a few hours, and may change to snow 
here before ending as colder air moves into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:

* Sunny and still windy Thu, but winds steadily decrease through the 
  day. Below normal temps

Thursday...

Winds will decrease through the day, but will still be gusty due to 
deepening and well mixed boundary layer. Expect gusts to 40-50 mph 
around daybreak but will diminish to 25-35 mph by the afternoon. 
Despite full sunshine, it's a chilly airmass with 850 mb temps 
around -5 to -6C. Expect highs ranging from mid 40s higher terrain 
to low 50s near the south coast. Gusty winds will make it feel more 
like the 30s and 40s. 

Thursday night...

Center of high pres builds south of New Eng with ridging moving into 
SNE. Winds will diminish and become light which will set the stage 
for favorable radiational cooling as skies will be mostly clear with 
just a few high clouds moving into the region. Lows will settle into 
the 20s across much of SNE, but hold in the low-mid 30s along the 
immediate coast and Cape/Islands.  

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Messages:

* One round of showers Fri night into Sat AM followed by another 
  period of showers sometime Sun into early Mon

* Highs mainly in the 50s to near 60 Fri & Sun with Sat the mildest 
  day with highs in the lower to middle 60s

* Turning colder later Mon with highs Tue in the upper 30s & 40s 
  with even some flurries/sprinkles possible 

Details...

Friday...

High pressure continues to shift further east of the region Fri as 
low pressure lifts into eastern Canada. While it will remain dry 
during the day Fri...gusty SW winds will develop Fri afternoon ahead 
of an approaching cold front. Highs should top off in the 50s to 
near 60...but the gusty winds in the afternoon will make it feel a 
bit cooler.

Friday night and Saturday...

A shortwave/cold front crosses the region Fri night into early Sat. 
Ahead of this front...a modest southwest LLJ of 50+ knots coupled 
with a Pwat surge over 1 inch will bring a period of showers 
sometime Fri night into early Sat. Drier weather follows by Sat 
afternoon but the airmass is still quite mild. 850T of +4C or 
greater coupled with good mixing on westerly flow should allow for a 
mild Sat afternoon. High temps should top off in the lower to middle 
60s across much of the region...a solid 10 degrees above normal for 
this time of year. 

Sunday through Wednesday...

The next low pressure system will be lifting northeastward across 
the eastern Great Lakes and into eastern Canada Sun into early Mon. 
There also may be some secondary development near the coast. This 
should result in another round of showers sometime Sun into early 
Mon. Much chillier weather follows later Mon into Tue as a deep 
upper trough crosses the region. In fact...high temps on Tue will 
only be in the upper 30s and 40s with a gusty west wind. There might 
be a few flurries/sprinkles with the shortwave trough. Lows Tue 
night will be mainly in the 20s with dry weather following for Wed 
and highs in the 40s to near 50.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - 
greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update: High confidence.

VFR. Increasing S/SW winds with gusts to 20-25kt later this 
afternoon. Cold front will bring scattered showers tonight with 
brief MVFR conditions possible, followed by strong W/NW wind gusts 
for about 2-3 hours behind it. Most sites should see 40-45kt gusts 
but we can't rule out 45-50kt gusts at BAF/BDL and especially Cape 
Cod/Islands. NW winds slowly diminish Thu but probably don't drop 
below 30kt gusts until midday.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence. 

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/... 

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts 
up to 30 kt. SHRA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance 
SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - 
greater than 60 percent.

Storm warnings remain in effect for all waters. 

Expect a period of pre-frontal SW gusts to 40-45 kt this evening 
over the southern waters, then more widespread W-NW gusts to 50 kt 
develops after wind shift to W-NW after midnight. Seas will build to 
12-15 ft late tonight over southern outer waters. Winds will begin 
to diminish by daybreak and will further decrease through the day 
Thu. Wind gusts will drop below 20 kt overnight Thu night. 

Outlook /Friday through Monday/... 

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 
kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough 
seas. Rain showers likely. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 
25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 
ft. 

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 
kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up 
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up 
to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for 
    CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for 
    MAZ003>007-010>021-026.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday 
   for MAZ002-008-009.
     High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday 
    for MAZ022>024.
RI...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for 
    RIZ001>007.
     High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday 
    for RIZ008.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday 
for      ANZ230>237-251.
     Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for 
     ANZ250.
     Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for 
     ANZ254-255.
     Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for 
     ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Frank
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/JWD
MARINE...KJC/Frank