Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

54°F

11/10/2025 2:31am

Lexington Conditions: Fog, Overcast
Temperature: 54.0°F / 12.2°C
Dew Point: 52.9°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.62 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: ¼ mile
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Special Weather Statement
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 080841
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
341 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary frontal boundary draped over Southern New England 
will continue to focus cloud cover and light rain through early
this afternoon before improving late. Brief clearing tonight,
but a warm front brings another period of overcast and light 
rains for Sunday, trending to areas of drizzle and misty 
overcast for Sunday evening. Area of low pressure and cold front
bring a round of rain and gusty southerly winds into early 
Monday, followed by much chillier weather later Monday and 
especially by Tuesday. Slight improvements in temperatures 
Wednesday before a reinforcing trough arrives later next week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Overcast with light, nuisance-type rains for most this morning, 
  although some heavier showers and possible morning lightning 
  strikes for the Cape and Islands. 

* Decreasing clouds west to east through afternoon. Mild temps in 
  the mid 50s to near 60, but not much warming anticipated.

Details:

What has now turned into a quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisects 
Southern New England early this morning, trailing from about NYC on 
northeast through Boston, bringing mostly light rain showers along 
its extent. This boundary has stalled in response to a deamplifying 
midlevel shortwave disturbance evident in water vapor imagery near 
the Cincinnati/Louisville area. This stalled frontal boundary will 
be the biggest forecast challenge regarding the forecast for today. 
SE of this stalled boundary, in a weakly-unstable elevated-
instability environment offshore of Long Island into our southern 
coastal waters, regional radar is showing deeper convective showers 
and even a few thunderstorms with radar-estimated cloud tops around 
20-25kft, which have prompted some MWSs for the waters. This 
activity is developing in a weakly unstable airmass (MLCapes per 
SPC's mesoanalysis around 100-300 J/kg) in a theta-e ridge over the 
waters. The SPC mesoanalysis forecast off the RAP shows this narrow 
ribbon of instability translating eastward through the next 4 to 6 
hours, which will favor additional shower and thunderstorm activity 
to continue to develop and move rather quickly off towards the 
northeast, primarily impacting the Cape and Islands and the adjacent 
waters. Although severe weather is not expected, a few cloud to 
ground lightning strikes and perhaps graupel could result in the 
most intense of storms. Otherwise, due to the cloud cover and 
continued SWly breezes, temperatures are well above normal for a mid-
November early morning with current readings in the lower to mid 
50s. 

As mentioned, the main forecast challenge for today revolves around 
when this stationary boundary and its clouds/rain finally exits 
stage right. The rain showers aligned along the stationary 
front are light. Still, continued light rains can be expected 
from the Hartford- Worcester-Boston corridor on south/east into 
late this morning until the shortwave aloft over Cincinnati 
vicinity gives the front its added push offshore. Further north 
and west from the Merrimack Valley into the Berkshires/Pioneer 
Valley, showers are expected to be more intermittent with more 
drier periods in the morning than not. So the message for the 
first part of the day over the southeastern half of the CWA is 
that we'll see periods of light rain showers which are more of a
nuisance than necessarily impactful. Obviously with the 
overcast, diabatic warming will be at a minimum too, so 
wouldn't expect temps to go much further than the mid to upper 
50s through the morning, and those will most likely serve as 
today's calendar-day highs in most if not all areas. 

By afternoon, a few more peeks of sun are anticipated, sooner in 
western New England and not until later in the day for eastern MA 
and RI. Winds to turn light westerly with falling dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
315 AM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Mostly clear and chilly tonight, but with increasing clouds and 
  slowly-warming temps before sunrise. 

* Turns overcast with another round of light, nuisance rains later 
  in the morning, becoming overcast and drizzly late in the 
  day/early tonight. Potential for a raw Sunday with highs in the 
  40s to lower 50s.
  
Details: 

Tonight: 

Sfc ridge of high pressure noses in from the NW early tonight, which 
will bring decreased west winds which eventually flip a light 
northerly to northeast drainage flow around midnight-ish. Strong 
nighttime cooling is likely before the pre-dawn hrs. 

We then enter in a period of low-level warm advection with rather 
complex sea level pressure pattern for the 2nd half of the night. 
Mid-level warm front, associated with a primary but occluding sfc 
cyclone progged near northern Indiana early Sunday morning, spreads 
a canopy of midlevel clouds over interior New England. Backed off on 
populated NBM low-chance PoPs overnight for western New England as 
it's simply still too dry for precip to develop. You'd be really 
digging deep into the toolbox (seeder-feeder mechanism?) to 
justify showing any PoP there and I just don't see it. Meanwhile,
secondary bagginess to isobars/possible weak low near the lower
mid- Atlantic region takes shape toward early morning, and this
should turn winds toward the SE and allow for temps to slowly 
warm over eastern/southeast coastal areas from nighttime lows. 

Opted for lows around freezing NW MA, to the mid/upper 30s for the 
rest of SNE, but temps should be gradually trending upward prior to 
sunrise with the SE flow developing.  

Sunday:

Increasing clouds from SW to NE on Sun, as initial complex frontal 
system traverses NE through New England. While the primary sfc wave 
treks from IN/OH NE through western NY, weak secondary low pressure 
and its associated warm front move northward through NY/LI into 
Southern New England late in the morning to the mid-afternoon. The 
timing of this warm front/related light rains is still a little 
uncertain and will affect the temps. QPF amts are light, a quarter 
inch or less.

Present indications are that rains approach the southern coast just 
before noontime and spreads quickly N/NE through the rest of 
Southern New England during the afternoon, tapering off to an 
overcast/drizzly/dry-slot aloft kind of look late in the day to 
early Sun night. If warm frontal rains develop sooner, say towards 
mid-morning as offered by more progressive solutions, then a slower 
rise to temps driven by thermal warm advection would be more likely. 

I sided highs to the mid 40s NW MA to lower-mid 50s eastern and
southeast MA and CT, which is on the cooler end of outcomes in 
case the light rains do come in early in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* System brings a period of rain and breezy winds Monday.

* Trending cooler early next week, with below normal temperatures.

* Gusty winds Tuesday. 30-35 mph, locally up to 40 mph.  

* Isolated shower/sprinkle or flurry over the higher terrain and 
  some ocean effect showers for Cape/Islands. Round of showers 
  possible later Wednesday. 

Details...

Monday: 

A deep upper level low and trough moves across the Great Lakes 
toward the region Monday, eventually pushing in a cool airmass into 
southern New England. An increasing number of global ensembles 
develop a secondary area of low pressure on Monday.  Overall, not 
expecting high impacts from the system as the majority of ensemble 
MSLP members from the GFS and ECMWF have minimum MSLP values >995mb. 
In terms of impacts, Monday should feature showers with a greater 
chance for steadier rain towards the Cape and Islands. Models show a 
significant frontal inversion on Monday with 925mb temps climbing to 
10-15C, especially across the Cape and Islands. If these temps mixed 
to the surface, we'd be looking at highs in the upper 60s for much 
of southeast Massachusetts. Unfortunately, dense clouds won't allow 
for much in the way of mixing and so highs will be stuck in the 50s 
for much of the region. Some colder air may seep far enough south to 
keep it in the upper 40s across the higher terrain of the interior.

Tuesday-Friday: 

Strong cold air advection into Tuesday as the deep upper trough 
shifts eastward bringing the core of the coldest air into the 
region. This will likely bring in the coldest air of the season so 
far with 850mb temperatures anomalies showing well below normal 
temperatures (-7 to -10C). This will support chilly temperatures 
with upper 30s for the higher terrain and 40s elsewhere. NW flow 
aloft with 850mb winds 40-50 kts. With CAA and ample mixing, higher 
winds should be able transfer down to the surface with gusts 30-35 
mph possible, potentially up to 40 mph. This will make it feel even 
chillier, with it feeling like upper 20s across the higher terrain 
and 30s elsewhere. Can't rule out a few lake effect showers to 
survive the trek over the Berkshires which would bring sprinkles, 
perhaps a flurry for the higher spots. Ocean effect showers will be 
possible with some potentially brushing the Cape and Islands in the 
WNW flow. 

Temperatures moderate slightly Wednesday as the core of the coldest 
air shifts eastward with the upper trough. It will still be on the 
cooler side with highs in the 40s for the higher terrain and low 50s 
elsewhere. Parade of shortwaves continues next Thursday bringing 
scattered rain and snow showers to much of New England. Can't rule 
out a lake effect shower earlier in the day to again make it to the 
east slope of the Berkshires, potentially as a flurry or very light 
shower. Colder airmass  works back in for the end of the week with 
below normal temperatures returning to the forecast and chances for 
some ocean-effect showers and a isolated remnant lake-effect shower 
out west.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: Moderate confidence. 

A round of light to moderate rain is anticipated to move from 
west to east from 03-06z tonight, ending between 08-11z tomorrow
morning. While the bulk of the rain will be out by 11z, expect
patchy areas of -SHRA to linger as late as 15-16z across the
Cape and Islands. CIGS behind the front will drop to low end 
MVFR to IFR. Winds overnight stay southerly gusting up to 20 
knots, but a low level jet aloft will bring wind shear concerns 
as 2-5kft winds increase to 45-55 knots. 

Saturday: Moderate confidence. 

CIGS gradually improve to VFR by mid morning, but could hang
around the 030 to 040 level through the afternoon. There could
be some post frontal showers moving west to east mid morning.
Winds turn westerly and remain breezy around 10-15 knots.

Saturday Night: High confidence. 

VFR. Easing WNW winds, then shift to light NE by 12z Sun.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. 

Rain continues overnight along with CIGS gradually falling to 
MVFR levels with IFR CIGS possible. Better chance for IFR cigs 
behind the front into the morning. 

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

CIGS gradually drop to MVFR with continued rainfall. There 
could be some periods of IFR CIGS behind the rain with -SHRA
chances continuing through at least 13z. 

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... 

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Veterans Day: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance
RA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. 

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

SCAs remain in effect for most waters due to continued SW winds
around 25-30 kt and offshore seas 5-8 ft. In addition, a risk
for heavy showers and embedded lightning strikes will exist for
mariners over the southern/southeast waters, which could prompt
periodic MWSs thru mid-morning. Winds turning light W and
decreasing seas into late-day today. 

Sub-SCA conditions tonight into first part of Sunday but 
increasig SE winds to around 15-25 kt could support reissuing 
SCAs for Sunday afternoon into evening. Another period of light
rains for Sunday as well from south to north.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... 

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely, isolated
thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain. 

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. 

Veterans Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft. Chance of rain. 

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas
up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up
to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are still running high coming out of the full
moon from late in the week, but are slowly decreasing each high
tide cycle through the next couple days. Will have to monitor
the high tides Sunday and Monday mornings at Nantucket for 
possible minor coastal flooding, with Stevens Institute
supporting about a 1 ft storm surge. Monday may offer a somewhat
better chance at getting close to minor flood stage as winds
turn more W to WNW into the harbor. Will reassess this potential
over the next day/two for possible coastal flood headlines but 
significant flooding is not expected.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230-
     236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for 
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/FT
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Loconto